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These predictions are v sensitive to assumptons in our current fragmented politics. Change the assumptions, the prediction will change sharply too.
The implicit assumption here seems to be "No Deal leads to Cons winning big chunk of BXP vote *and nothing else changes*"
That seems unlikely to me. In fact, it seems unlikely to me that any move which secures 3/4 of BXP vote for Cons won't cost them votes elsewhere.
That seems unlikely to me. In fact, it seems unlikely to me that any move which secures 3/4 of BXP vote for Cons won't cost them votes elsewhere.
If we ran the scenario "No Deal alienates Con Remainers and a chunk of voters who still vote on economic competence grounds, while winning fewer BXP voters than expected from Lab" then we would end up with a v different graph. V hard to know ahead of time which scenario we get.
(that should say "BXP sympathetic" or "Brexit sympathetic" voters from Lab)
