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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This by @stephenkb is exactly right and illustrates why the Labour partisans attacking the Lib Dems for “blocking” a Corbyn led unity govt are in fact doing the same thing as Swinson et al - partisan signalling
newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Labour politicians and partisan, assuming they can do basic arithmetic, know just as well as everyone else that without the votes of former Con and Lab independent MPs there is no majority for a govt of national unity. And they know such inds will never back Corbyn.
So why are they trying to spin the yarn that only selfish LDs stand in the way of a Corbyn govt averting no deal, which they must know is false? For the same reason that LDs themselves insist Corbyn is unacceptable: they see an electoral interest in doing so
Though while I think the LDs have a strong electoral case for opposing Corbyn because the voters they’re trying to win really dislike Corbyn, I think Lab painting LDs as Jez hating spoilers isn’t a winner, because the voters they fear losing to LDs...also really dislike Corbyn.
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Expect we will see a lot of these "wizard of Oz" stories this election cycle, as we do every election cycle, as journalists attribute magical powers to quite banal and standard campaign data collection and analysis techniques
news.sky.com/story/the-lib-…
Maybe ever more than usual given the massive fuss about Cambridge Analytica, who may have done dodgy things but weren't doing anything particularly clever in terms of data analysis or modelling as far as I've ever seen.
There will also be related "wizard of Oz" narratives attributing magical powers to campaign strategists, because everyone prefers agency based stories (Cons won because Dom is a genius) to structure ones (Cons won because of complex shifts in vote that were little to do with Dom)
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
These predictions are v sensitive to assumptons in our current fragmented politics. Change the assumptions, the prediction will change sharply too.
The implicit assumption here seems to be "No Deal leads to Cons winning big chunk of BXP vote *and nothing else changes*"

That seems unlikely to me. In fact, it seems unlikely to me that any move which secures 3/4 of BXP vote for Cons won't cost them votes elsewhere.
If we ran the scenario "No Deal alienates Con Remainers and a chunk of voters who still vote on economic competence grounds, while winning fewer BXP voters than expected from Lab" then we would end up with a v different graph. V hard to know ahead of time which scenario we get.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
If you imagined a scenario where the Lib Dems end up supplanting Labour among Remain voters, this is the kind of polling you would expect as a starting point to an election focussed entirely on Brexit. A lot could change in campaign of course, but v. worrying for Lab
Remain voters don't think they are pro-Remain and now increasingly convinced they have an alternative who are. Meanwhile basically zero Leave voters think Lab are in favour of Leave either, so Lab have to hope such voters have other reasons to back them.
It *might* work, of course - arguably something like this worked in 2017. But if it doesn't work, we will all look back at polling like this and say "the warning signs were there".
Read 3 tweets

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Gilead Ini
@GileadIni
What's the deal with with Jeremy Corbyn? For those who haven't followed the story, here's why so many people, and especially Jews, are concerned about the man who presided over the Labour antisemitism crisis. [A thread based on camera.org/article/jeremy…]
2/ Let's begin in January 2006—it's not the very beginning, but still a very good place to start. Not for the first time, Corbyn then campaigned for the release of two convicted terrorists who who set off a bomb at a London building HOUSING JEWISH CHARITIES and at the IL embassy.
3/ In 2009, #Corbyn warmly called Hezbollah "friends," described them as committed to "peace, social justice, and political justice," and called on people to support them. Hezbollah, a proscribed terror organization, inter alia had BOMBED AN ARGENTINA JEWISH CENTER, killing 85.
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Ragnorakishere
@ragnorakishere
This morning I sent a tweet to someone who was clearly smearing #Corbyn I started by saying "You joined the Lib Dems because you are a #Tory You line your pockets on the hard work of others." For my troubles I received a lot of abuse.
Nice to know that remainers consider a nurse and veteran a cultist dickhead. I actually voted remain, but would rather see Corbyn negotiate a trade deal that keeps many of the freedoms we have than have a no deal Brexit!
To debate and discuss the nuances of brexit etc. Is one thing but to use #Antisemitism #Racism #Cult and the notion that Lib Dems are progressive is another.
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Sebastian Payne
@SebastianEPayne
Oh. Lib Dems scotch idea of Corbyn-led caretaker government:

“I can’t conceive of any circumstances under which we would put Corbyn into No. 10 He’s not only dangerous for our national security but for our economic security too.”

Latest with @MureDickie ft.com/content/05520a…
@MureDickie Without the Lib Dems' 13 MPs, Jeremy Corbyn can't form a majority government.

Without Corbyn at the helm, the Labour leadership won't work with other parties.

So RIP caretaker government of national unity.

ft.com/content/05520a…
Lib Dems and pro-Remain Tories want a "credible" Labour backbench MP to head up the caretaker government - the names of Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper are frequently mentioned. But with Corbyn and the frontbench not interested, it's a non-starter.

ft.com/content/05520a…
Read 4 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. I don't really pay much attention to #Labour Twitter. It;s not really saying anything worth my time. The right of the party are all Blairite remainers who I've always hated since they embody the worst of left wing paternalism and snobbery. Thread...
2. The left of the party however, is a shitshow of hipster communists and gobby younglings who know fuck all about nine tenths of anything, pushing a socialist agenda they don't understand much less comprehend the implications of it.
3. Then as I understand it, their fondness for Brexit is based on some half understood notions about competition rules and state aid - but in actuality they couldn't give a toss about Brexit. They're just at war with the FBPE morons since they attack Corbyn. Purely tribal.
Read 20 tweets
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Open Europe
@OpenEurope
Labour leader @jeremycorbyn delivering #Brexit speech in Wakefield: Let there be no doubt: Theresa May’s deal is a bad deal for our country and Labour will vote against it next week in parliament.
Corbyn: If the govt cannot pass its most important legislation, there must be general election at the earliest opportunity.
Corbyn: If general election cannot be secured, Labour will keep other options on the table, including another #Brexit public vote
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