Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Predictions

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#Breaking- “What Happened in the #Putin-#Erdogan Meeting Today” #Turkey #Syria #Russia with Sibel Edmonds via #Newsbud. Watch Here: bit.ly/2J8Dy5h
Full episode at #Newsbud (Join Today- become a member of my community). Preview here at #YouTube:
#Syria’s #Assad Fully Supports #Turkey-#Russia Memorandum Signed Yesterday by #Erdogan-#Putin.
Read 5 tweets
#Predictions for the rest of 2019:
1. Trump’s #dementia worsens.
2. Try as he may, Bolton fails to start war with #Iran.
3. Democratic candidates pick up seats in #NJLeg #KYLeg #VALeg #MSLeg & #LALeg.
4. Bots from Iran/Syria/Russia will wreck havoc on the Internet one day by retweeting like a DOS attack.
5. #Brexit will be extended yet again until 2020.
6. Interest rates will spike, but corporate stock buybacks will continue to prop up the stock market until late in the year.
6. Due to Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, other countries raise prices opportunistically. #Inflation heats up on durable goods and many other products. (H/t to Art Leonard)
7. School shootings return as usual.
8. No #InfrastructureWeek happens.
Read 18 tweets
As part of my resolutions for 2019, I want to think more critically about the papers I'm reading. I'll start with "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts" (arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807).

#AI #predictions #paperreview
The paper "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts" analyses predictions about progress in AI from researchers who published at the 2015 NIPS and ICML conferences. Only a quick survey was used to gather the data.

arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807
A quick survey does not evoke thoughtful forecasts. It provokes fast thinking and sampling from intuition. Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking fast and slow" provides ample examples of how fast thinking is skewed by bias.

amazon.co.uk/Thinking-Fast-…
Read 12 tweets

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