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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Expect we will see a lot of these "wizard of Oz" stories this election cycle, as we do every election cycle, as journalists attribute magical powers to quite banal and standard campaign data collection and analysis techniques
news.sky.com/story/the-lib-…
Maybe ever more than usual given the massive fuss about Cambridge Analytica, who may have done dodgy things but weren't doing anything particularly clever in terms of data analysis or modelling as far as I've ever seen.
There will also be related "wizard of Oz" narratives attributing magical powers to campaign strategists, because everyone prefers agency based stories (Cons won because Dom is a genius) to structure ones (Cons won because of complex shifts in vote that were little to do with Dom)
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
I've said in this tweet that I am certain that this policy commitment is commiting our government to a new Windrush scandal. I want to explain why I am so certain of this. THREAD 1/?
2/? First, we need to understand what conditions created first Windrush crisis. It was a combination of 3 things:
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
These predictions are v sensitive to assumptons in our current fragmented politics. Change the assumptions, the prediction will change sharply too.
The implicit assumption here seems to be "No Deal leads to Cons winning big chunk of BXP vote *and nothing else changes*"

That seems unlikely to me. In fact, it seems unlikely to me that any move which secures 3/4 of BXP vote for Cons won't cost them votes elsewhere.
If we ran the scenario "No Deal alienates Con Remainers and a chunk of voters who still vote on economic competence grounds, while winning fewer BXP voters than expected from Lab" then we would end up with a v different graph. V hard to know ahead of time which scenario we get.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
This by @stephenkb is exactly right and illustrates why the Labour partisans attacking the Lib Dems for “blocking” a Corbyn led unity govt are in fact doing the same thing as Swinson et al - partisan signalling
newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Labour politicians and partisan, assuming they can do basic arithmetic, know just as well as everyone else that without the votes of former Con and Lab independent MPs there is no majority for a govt of national unity. And they know such inds will never back Corbyn.
So why are they trying to spin the yarn that only selfish LDs stand in the way of a Corbyn govt averting no deal, which they must know is false? For the same reason that LDs themselves insist Corbyn is unacceptable: they see an electoral interest in doing so
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