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Our 1st VA state legislative survey of the fall is out and it finds Dems fired up to vote; suggesting some manifestation of a "Trump Bump" as Dems attempt to flip control of both chambers of the state's General Assembly. 
55% of registered voter report being "very enthusiastic" about voting in the election. Dems have a significant advantage over Republicans on voter enthusiasm, 62% to 49%. Further, 84% of Democrats say they will "definitely vote," compared with 74% of Republicans and 75% of Indies
A possible ominous sign for VA Rs is the large leads Dems hold among likely voters on the generic ballot (+13) and on preference for party control of the General Assembly after the election (+16). Dems lead among Indies on both these questions.
The state legislative cycle that falls outside of any statewide elections has notoriously low turnout (est 30%). Over the Obama Era, low turnout benefited the GOP. Our most restrictive likely voter model suggests this time, the benefit will go to the Democrats due to enthusiasm.
We asked voters a series of "scenarios" that might make them more or less likely to support a state legislative a candidate. The analysis reveals 2 things: overwhelming voter support for issues like $15 min wage, gun control, & ERA ratification, + impact of national politics
Our 1st test of the 2020 ballot suggests, Trump, at just 37% approve in this poll, is losing to "generic Dem" by 15 pts. We want to note an imp point: the survey was largely in the field BEFORE the Ukraine scandal. Keep that in mind also for the above data.
I (@RachelBitecofer) have long been skeptical of the estimates offered by journalists for the % of Americans who have read the Mueller report, so I took advantage of my 1st chance to test it. And I want to reiterate, I tested it with pretty much the "cream of the crop" voters
in 1 of the most highly educated, politically engaged electorates in America. Just 6% claim to have read the whole thing. And this is the type of question people are highly likely to over-report on. And in terms of "avg." Americans, 6% here means 1% there. So yeah, no 1 read it
Here is the link to the full survey report, which i strongly suggest you read, and access to ADA accessible versions of the data and graphs posted here should you need it. cnu.edu/wasoncenter/su…
