Time is almost up. But I have written for @POLITICOEurope on what I think a last ditch landing zone could be in the negotiations based on my 3 yrs of experience in these talks. Here's a thread setting it out... /1 politico.eu/article/opinio…
I have always thought a deal very unlikely given the Government’s approach but I thought it worthwhile to set out what a real fair and reasonable landing zone might look like given the positions of the two sides over the past few weeks /2
Proposal not based on my ideal outcome & given it means big compromises from all sides may well be dismissed as all true compromises have been. But important people understand where potential agreement lies as we approach an election and then face choices over where to go next /3
First step is that the EU should acknowledge the positive steps on agrifood and industrial goods alignment and take that as a basis for talks. It should also concede that the principle of democratic consent in NI for any protocol is valid /4
UK’s proposal for consent would allow DUP a veto over whether NI ever ‘opts in’ to NI protocol. Should be reversed to an ‘opt out’ with NI protocol being the default rather than a no deal approach as current proposals suggest /5
Furthermore, consent must be similar to approach set out in the 1998 Agreement – where no single party can determine the future of NI, but where an NI Protocol can only endure if there is broad consent in across that nation /6
This consent approach should apply to regulation & customs. NI protocol would fall away leading to new negotiation if no longer consent across NI. Seems somewhat a statement of the obvious – if an approach doesn't enjoy continued consent on the ground in NI, it will not endure /7
On customs, detail must also change. Both sides should agree primary aim is to secure alternative arrangements by end of transition period & a clear set of criteria on which these will be judged. If that does not come to pass, NI will remain in both UK and EU customs territory /8
This allows flexibility on where any checks take place. Two possible approaches at this stage.
1. A ‘channels’ style proposal where goods going from GB to NI go through a green channel and goods going from GB to EU go through a red channel /9 (see here) politico.eu/article/irish-…
1. A ‘channels’ style proposal where goods going from GB to NI go through a green channel and goods going from GB to EU go through a red channel /9 (see here) politico.eu/article/irish-…
2. A hybrid where NI businesses can reclaim any tariff differential if they sell their products in NI rather than IRE – similar to the New Customs Partnership but for NI rather than the entire UK (@MESandbu has set out similar proposals recently) /10
This compromise has costs & benefits for both sides. For UK it ensures it can conclude trade deals from day 1 after transition no matter what, & ensures no part of the UK can be stuck in NI protocol indefinitely w/out its consent. Leaves the entire future up for negotiation /11
For EU, achieves same aims as current backstop. Trade off is accepting risk that, at some undefined future point, may no longer be consent in NI so issue will be revisited, but surely better than 50/50 chance of Conservatives winning GE & going for no deal in next few months /12
For both will allow first stage of this to be done, for the UK to leave the EU and for there to be more space to discuss other things. There are other ways to do this e.g. a time limit on current backstop or a rolling transition but neither seem politically viable on UK side /13
Given briefing over past 24 hrs, I think space for such a compromise is basically gone. This is mostly an attempt to explain where I think a fair landing zone could lie. May be that if a hung Parliament returns there is then space for this sort of approach /14 ENDS
