Have taken time to review the deal. A thread with some thoughts (noting it is similar to proposal I set out below). The vast majority is also the same as the deal negotiated by previous Govt but with a few crucial changes - based on real compromises from both sides /1
NI protocol is no longer a backstop but a front stop. It sets out to create a permanent relationship for NI regardless of the future relationship between the UK/EU. This likely serves to exacerbate the DUP's concerns /2
The consent process seems broadly sensible, if complex. It ensures wide consent and avoids any one party having a veto. It is hard to see how else it could be structured without giving just that /3
Due to the consent process, the new NI protocol is in some ways both more and less permanent than the previous one. There is a potential route out. But the rolling consent process & front stop approach, suggest it is never designed to be temporary unlike previous backstop /4
On customs there is a quite significant border between GB and NI, though much depends on details negotiated during transition. Nevertheless, keeping NI in UK customs territory & the ability to be part of UK FTAs are important symbolic wins for the UK Govt /5
I do not think it quite right to say this is exactly the same as the previous deal or the Commission's original NI only backstop. The consent process, keeping NI in UK's customs territory & the rebate process are all meaningful changes to those previous proposals /6
The EU has made a number of compromises:
- left many details for transition so not fully legally operable now
- allowed an exit mechanism thanks to consent process
- accepted some backdoor risk to single market & customs union
- removed level playing field from WA /7
- left many details for transition so not fully legally operable now
- allowed an exit mechanism thanks to consent process
- accepted some backdoor risk to single market & customs union
- removed level playing field from WA /7
The UK has also made a number of compromises:
- accepted a much more significant customs border between GB and NI, which could be permanent
- allowed continued EU oversight & enforcement of rules in NI /8
- accepted a much more significant customs border between GB and NI, which could be permanent
- allowed continued EU oversight & enforcement of rules in NI /8
Political declaration now aims for a more standard FTA. While the ambition on goods has been reduced, the ambition on services has not been increased. The level playing field commitments seem in line with approach in FTAs & signal EU acceptance this is for the next phase /9
Is it a good deal or better deal? Depends on your point of view. It leaves the future more open & allows UK to be sure of an independent trade policy. But it makes significant changes to trade within our Union, which may become permanent albeit with democratic oversight. /10 ENDS
