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, 6 tweets, 2 min read
So FCA (dual customs border) just for NI a la @MESandbu & @RaoulRuparel? If Ireland and EU willing to accept it, could work.
Lots of people misunderstood the proposal at the time. The EU issue with FCA was that it’s difficult to know when final sale is UK or EU, which could give UK industries an unfair competitive advantage.
Actual process of running dual tariff regime fairly straightforward:

First, pay higher tariff/EU upon import, then

a) If importer demonstrates final sale in (lower tariff) UK claims rebate; or
b) trusted companies pay correct tariff on import dependent on point of final sale
Anyway, who knows if this is what the plan is. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow. In practical terms, means NI in customs union with EU, but politically speaking not quite.
Addendum: so question is whether EU would accept Chequers but just for NI. Risks to single market lower than all-UK, but still present.
And to be clear, I have no inside insight on this - I am going off this thread by the well-informed @denisstaunton:
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More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
If we really are closing in on the final landing zone, EU won’t want to waste a deal on a Parliament that won’t sign up to it (again).
So EU tentativeness at this stage very understandable.
I still think extension and general election more likely than deal being signed off by parliament at this stage. What happens then depends on outcome of general election ...

But who knows? I’m just speculating.
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
This (NI becoming an attractive place for manufacturers who want preferential access to UK and EU to set up) isn’t the issue.

EU already accepted this as a possibility when they offered UK the original NI-specific backstop, and it’s why NI business groups could live with it.
The EU’s concern is that products made *outside* of NI and subject to a lower tariff due to them having allegedly been sold to a consumer in Northern Ireland actually end up making their way into the rest of the EU either as an input into something else or just as is.
See:
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
People remember that even under no deal Northern Ireland gets treated different from the rest of the UK, right?
Everyone pretends to get worked up about it, but it’s nearly impossible to envision any Brexit scenario, other than one where the UK ends up in an extremely close relationship with the EU, where Northern Ireland doesn’t have a different relationship with the EU than Great Britain
(Which is why one of the biggest mysteries of Brexit is the DUP’s decision not to advocate for a close UK-EU relationship and instead align themselves with the ERG who want nothing of the sort.)
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
In response to @Jim_Cornelius' tweet a longish one on @GregHands interview on Newsnight last night (and the proposal in general).

TL:DR I get what they are trying to do but I have some genuine questions/concerns /1
@Jim_Cornelius @GregHands On the proposal and the integrity of SM – yes the proposal protects it in theory, on paper. But 1) smuggling will be hudge problem - how will the revolving patrol know if the car they stopped is an SME who is exempt from customs procedures and tariffs or a smuggler?
/2
@Jim_Cornelius @GregHands 2) Requires the EU to agree to unprecedented derogation from the UCC. Both in terms of how existing procedures work & exemption for SMEs. Think of it this way – customs declarations thresholds are going down in general.
/3
Read 14 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Apart from not meeting any of the conditions an alternative arrangement was supposed to met (apart from a super narrow definition of no checks AT the border) I have two main problems with this new proposal /1
1) It doesn't provide any simplifications for SMEs and makes it much harder and expensive for them to trade. In the absence of a trusted trader programme that would work for SMEs, they can either use transit or submit a pre-lodged customs declaration /2
Both option require SMEs to use services of a #customs agent which can wipe out the entire profit margin (if you can find one that is, as this industry not currently developed in the area as not really needed until now) /3
Read 9 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
What do you do with a problematic border you wish wasn’t there? Move it inside your own country? Some thoughts on the latest ''backstop' alternative arrangements suggestions /1

ft.com/content/2301dd…
You could say this coming from the PM is more of the same "have your cake and eat it" narrative but what does "moving fluidly" actually mean? /2
With a common SPS zone +regulatory regime for industrial goods, what happens to the border?
If the UK is out of the CU+SM there is a customs border between NI and ROI. Regulatory alignment changes nothing here. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
My recommended read is Principia Politica by @nntaleb. The question is how to look at & discipline politicians through the complex systems perspective (nature, ecosystems, complexity) and thus shape the processes bottom-up reflecting on Fractal Localism. academia.edu/38433249/Princ…
We must keep those in power & the bureaucrats constantly in check. Bottom-up. Decentralization. We have to bother them, demand more from them, and make them feel uncomfortable if they don’t keep their political promises or don’t deliver. We have to expose them too when necessary!
The State, its bureaucrats, politicians as well as supranational organizations are not masters but are to be seen as (social) servants providing a specific social good that is desired by a healthy mass of citizens (collective service, good, demand). Otherwise, social parasitism.
Read 13 tweets
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Constantin Gurdgiev
@GTCost
Why GDP and GNP should NOT be used as reference points for measuring the size of #Ireland economy? Two charts: 1) The two measures are not even on-trend with the real demand, 2) The gap between MNCs-shenanigans in Irish Nat. Accounts & the real domestic demand is MASSIVE 82% +
+ So for all my learned friends, esp in the likes of @CatoInstitute @FraserInstitute @danieljmitchell et al: what your Indices of Economic Freedom rankings for #Ireland reflect is the vast transfer of economic power from the residents of Ireland to Multinational Corporates. +
+ As long as you continue to reference Irish GDP as a base for your Indices, you will miss the true extent of over-regulation, over-taxation, cronyism, corruption imposed onto ordinary Irish people, businesses, & entrepreneurs, by the monopolization of Irish policies & politics+
Read 19 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
104 pages of the #Brexit #WhitePaper reduced to 10 slides.
Especially for those concerned for @BorderIrish, @BelfastAgmt,
& with more sense than time.

@DPhinnemore & I have scrutinised the WP in light of #JointReport commitments to NI/IRL & the UK's alternative #backstop.
1/10
A bit of context-setting (plus explanation of our imaginative colour coding).

The White Paper is in part an effort by UK govt to prove a NI-specific #backstop to be unnecessary. But remember Protocol for NI/IRL in the Withdrawal Agmt is abt much more than a customs border.

2/10
A reminder of where we are up to on that Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agreement.

With added stars 🌟 to identify which bits the White Paper attempts to address (or negate) most directly.

3/10
Read 11 tweets

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