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, 3 tweets, 2 min read
Latest @YouGov poll 8-9 Oct
Con 35% +1
Lab 22% +1
Lib Dem 20% -3
Brexit Party 12% ±0
Green 6% +1
Change since 30 Sep-1 Oct
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
@YouGov Average of 4 polls from different cos this month (1-9 Oct)
Con 34%
Lab 24½%
Lib Dem 19%
Brexit Party 12%
Green 5%
People will vote differently in election, but projecting these vote shares leads to Con majority 62
electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/userco…
@YouGov If the UK left the EU, could imagine half of Brexit Party support going to Con, which would give an Electoral Calculus projection of 180 Con majority electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/userco…
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More from @JohnRentoul see all

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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
If there is to be a 2nd referendum in this parliament, it requires support of 40 of the 66 who did not vote in the indicative vote 1 Apr commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Deta…
In that vote cabinet ministers & many Tory MPs abstained; a referendum needs 320 votes to pass in a full turnout, so it was 40 short
I can't see more than 12 votes for a referendum in the Tory "no vote recorded" group; & there were 4 SNP MPs; but I think that's it – Lab non-voters would abstain again or vote against
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Myths of public opinion on Brexit, by Peter Kellner: #1 “Voters are so fed up with the whole process that they just want to get Brexit done” independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-…
#2 “Voters haven’t changed their minds about Brexit since the 2016 referendum”
#3 “If voters were persuaded in a new referendum to vote the same way as last time, Leave would win again”
#4 “Voters don’t want another referendum”
I don't think the evidence on #4 is clear-cut though
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Corbyn speech today hard to wriggle out of: Lab will vote for election as soon as extension agreed with EU
When he delivered it, Corbyn left out "and champing at the bit", but the rest commits Labour to an early election
Full (pre-issued) text of speech is here docs.google.com/document/d/1P3…
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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YouGov
@YouGov
Latest Westminster voting intention (30 Sep - 1 Oct)
Con - 34%
Lib Dem - 23%
Lab - 21%
Brexit Party - 12%
Green - 5%
Other - 5%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Boris Johnson - 40%
Jeremy Corbyn - 22%
Don't know - 35%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right - 40%
Wrong - 49%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 3 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n
lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
Read 125 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
Latest Westminster voting intention (5-6 Aug)
Con - 31%
Lab - 22%
Lib Dem - 21%
Brexit Party - 14%
Green - 7%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Boris Johnson - 39%
Jeremy Corbyn - 19%
Don't know - 37%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
How well / badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the EU?
Well - 12%
Badly - 76%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 4 tweets
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Flavible Politics
@flaviblePolitic
YouGov Scenario Thread (2) - 27-06-2019

Westminster Voting Intention if:

Corbyn Sticking to Labour Alternative Brexit
Starmer Sticking to Labour Alternative Brexit

Corbyn 2nd Ref & Opposing Brexit
Starmer 2nd Ref & Opposing Brexit

Source: yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
YouGov (Corbyn Labour Brexit) - 2019-06-27
LDem: 30%
Con: 24%
BRX: 19%
Lab: 17%
SNP: 4%
Grn: 4%
PC: 1%

Flavible Projection
LDem: 209 (+197)
Con: 181 (-137)
Lab: 150 (-112)
SNP: 48 (+13)
BRX: 38 (+38)
PC: 4 (-)
Grn: 1 (-)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ 2017
flavible.com/politics/map/p…
YouGov (Starmer Labour Brexit) - 2019-06-27
LDem: 29%
Con: 24%
BRX: 19%
Lab: 17%
Grn: 5%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%

Flavible Projection
LDem: 195 (+183)
Con: 191 (-127)
Lab: 154 (-108)
SNP: 48 (+13)
BRX: 38 (+38)
PC: 4 (-)
Grn: 1 (-)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ 2017
flavible.com/politics/map/p…
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I'm wondering about #Brexit and political identity, and how much this can explain the #ep2019 result in the UK, and might inform what Tories and Labour might try to do if there were a UK General Election
What the UK population things about Brexit is well documented in this PDF ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… by @UKandEU
The hardening of voter sentiment about the EU question is covered by this polling from YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 7 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
Brexit indecisiveness is seriously damaging Jeremy Corbyn. Our new favourability survey finds the Labour leader on an all-time low of -45 - lower even than it was prior to the 2017 general election campaign yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
After the 2017 general election, 2 of the top 3 words associated with Corbyn were positive - now none of the top 5 are.

% saying Corbyn is... (Jun 2017 vs now)

Honest - 30% ↘️16%
Intelligent - 24%↘️16%

Out of touch - 22%↗️34%
Dishonest - 13%↗️23%

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
We asked people who said they used to like Corbyn, but no longer do, why that was the case. 43% of them blamed his behaviour around Brexit yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Whips #NewClause4 #poll #ChangeIsComing #Tory #ThirdReading #DUP #PointsOfOrder #PutitothePeopleMarch #JC4PM2019 #Brexit #PeoplesVote #CooperBill #SecondTime #TheresaMayStatement #Economy #Labour #Corbyn #Clause1asAmended #NoConfidence #Amendment22 #Grouping #BrexitDividend #BennAct #votes
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