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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
I'm wondering about #Brexit and political identity, and how much this can explain the #ep2019 result in the UK, and might inform what Tories and Labour might try to do if there were a UK General Election
What the UK population things about Brexit is well documented in this PDF ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… by @UKandEU
The hardening of voter sentiment about the EU question is covered by this polling from YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
And there is some more here, about how Remain people are moving to the Lib Dems
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
But I cannot find anything about relative identity of voters.

Has someone who said "I am a Labour voter who is also Remain" now become "I am a Remain person who used to vote Labour"? Or "I am a liberal who voted Remain" is now "I will back whatever party is most pro-Remain"?
On the other side, it would be something like "I am a Tory voter who backed Leave" becoming "I am a Leaver, I always used to vote Tory, but now I will back whoever is strongest advocating Brexit"
Is there any solid research on this? @sarahobolt @anandMenon1 @Usherwood @robfordmancs @PeterKellner1 @benatipsosmori Thanks! Merci! Danke!

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So in light of some big name backing for Johnson (notably from Steve Baker), and Johnson backing of a "Clean Brexit" (basically the Singham 🦄), I have adjusted my #Brexit diagram - now Series 3, Version 4
The chance Boris gets to 2nd round is now .8 (was .6) - based on this: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Comments by Raab and others on prorogation of Parliament put up chances pragmatists resign there

And the change all this makes overall? Just +/- 1% in comparison to Version 3!
As ever all the detail - high res images, XML, .ods calculations etc. - on my blog: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Feedback very welcome - analysis of the odds on each node is especially welcome!

/ends
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Thursday evening I was a panellist at a @lseei event in Berlin entitled "Social Media and the Politicisation of European Politics: Curse or Blessing?"

Other panellists were @Kai_Whittaker @ur_echo @kleine_m @lonanglo

Here's LSE's tweet about the event
In this thread I will focus on one of the panellists - @Kai_Whittaker - and what he said at the event, and his social media behaviour afterwards, and what it tells us about the @rezomusik mess the CDU has found itself in.
Kai is a CDU Member of the Bundestag, a LSE alumnus (so ought to be sharp), and is 34 years old.

In terms of the use of digital tools he should be at least as much a digital native as I am.
Read 12 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Lots of misconceptions about the Danish election result circulating on Twitter, not least because of confusing party names and letters.

Here's a simple graph of the result, inc. changes from 2015, with party names translated for an international audience.
And - related to that - the Social Democrats did not *win*. They were the largest party, but their vote share declined. A leftist coalition will probably emerge because other leftist (and pro-immigration) parties did well.
Also what happened to the Danish People's Party is complex - some of its support went further right, and some went to more traditional parties, some of whom copied its policies.

There are no simple conclusions to draw here.
Read 4 tweets

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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
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#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

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Brexit, but in gifs.

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The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Katy Hayward
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
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Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
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Rachel Heyburn #FBPE #WeAreTheOppositionNow
@Rachel5742
1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
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