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, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Corbyn speech today hard to wriggle out of: Lab will vote for election as soon as extension agreed with EU
When he delivered it, Corbyn left out "and champing at the bit", but the rest commits Labour to an early election
Full (pre-issued) text of speech is here docs.google.com/document/d/1P3…
Corbyn coming under pressure to block an early election independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
But if Thornberry, Watson, McDonnell & Starmer can't ensure a temporary PM, they are arguing to keep Johnson in power for months
Footnote: it would take 204 MPs to block a two-thirds vote for an early election, excl 7 Sinn Fein, 4 Speaker & deputies, 2 tellers for the Ayes: FTPA requires a positive vote of 434 MPs (not counting tellers) legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/…
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
If there is to be a 2nd referendum in this parliament, it requires support of 40 of the 66 who did not vote in the indicative vote 1 Apr commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Deta…
In that vote cabinet ministers & many Tory MPs abstained; a referendum needs 320 votes to pass in a full turnout, so it was 40 short
I can't see more than 12 votes for a referendum in the Tory "no vote recorded" group; & there were 4 SNP MPs; but I think that's it – Lab non-voters would abstain again or vote against
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Latest @YouGov poll 8-9 Oct
Con 35% +1
Lab 22% +1
Lib Dem 20% -3
Brexit Party 12% ±0
Green 6% +1
Change since 30 Sep-1 Oct
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
@YouGov Average of 4 polls from different cos this month (1-9 Oct)
Con 34%
Lab 24½%
Lib Dem 19%
Brexit Party 12%
Green 5%
People will vote differently in election, but projecting these vote shares leads to Con majority 62
electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/userco…
@YouGov If the UK left the EU, could imagine half of Brexit Party support going to Con, which would give an Electoral Calculus projection of 180 Con majority electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/userco…
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Myths of public opinion on Brexit, by Peter Kellner: #1 “Voters are so fed up with the whole process that they just want to get Brexit done” independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-…
#2 “Voters haven’t changed their minds about Brexit since the 2016 referendum”
#3 “If voters were persuaded in a new referendum to vote the same way as last time, Leave would win again”
#4 “Voters don’t want another referendum”
I don't think the evidence on #4 is clear-cut though
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Cristiano M. Gaston
@cmgaston
Elaboro meglio la questione #Corbyn-#Brexit perché già vedo girare molte bestialità su testate anche importanti (ammesso che ne rimangano).

In sintesi: Corbyn non ha affatto cambiato idea.
Innanzitutto, il partito ha subito perdite catastrofiche.

-EU 2014: 25,4% (p)
-UK 2017: 39,99% (m)
-EU 2019: 14:1% (p)

(p)roporzionale / (m)aggioritario
Sono invece in fortissima ascesa i partiti con chiara posizione pro (Brexit Party, 31%) o contro (LibDem, 20%; Verdi 12%) Brexit.

I partiti ambigui sono stati puniti dall'elettorato (Tory a un abissale 9%).
Read 14 tweets
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Glen O'Hara
@gsoh31
Now, where was I? Oh yes, threads earlier talking about v likely #Corbyn #Labour government that failure of MV3 has created. I warn you that I've been to a Bottomless Brunch of Prosecco with some of my cousins, but short thread follows.
Let's start here: even in their best case scenario, #Labour is likely to be in a minority. Evidence is legion that they are going to catch an absolute *tonking* in Scotland, and I'd be surprised if they had held more than one seat there as things stand.
In that situation, LDs, SNP, Green, Plaid will try to hold them to another #EUref. Given c.25-35 Labour rebels, they will need a combined majority of 50-70 to avoid tearing themselves apart over this. That's the first step.
Read 17 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU reaction behind closed doors to Speaker ruling out another meaningful vote on Brexit deal unless there are substantial changes: “Again we thought we could see a way forward. Now it’s confusion once again.” 1
EU had been trying to coordinate a reaction to an anticipated request by Theresa May for an extension to UKs leaving process but EU now believes everything is up in the air again ..with 11 days to go till Brexit day 2
One more optimistic high level EU diplomat told me: “I can’t believe I’m saying this but there are still a couple of days to go till the summit and 11 days till 29 March .. the way the Brexit process has gone so far - that’s a lot of time and a lot can still happen “ 3
Read 5 tweets
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J.N. PAQUET ✒
@jnpaquet
How @DailyMailUK twisted the results of @Survation poll and created a nice little frontpage to support Theresa May with some beautiful YESes in red and some lovely supporting words, even though the front page does not actually reflects the results of the poll...
So, let's have a closer look at some of the questions asked and the ACTUAL answers of voters...
Q1. When UK Govt's negotiations over the terms of Britain's exit from #EU are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote - a referendum - asking the public their view?

- Support 48% 👈
- Oppose 34%
- Don't know 18%

Large margin 14% to support a #PeoplesVote!
Read 18 tweets
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wiiw
@wiiw_news
Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13
#Growth still looks quite good for most, notable upgrades this time for #Poland, #Serbia, #Hungary. But downgrades for several #EU members, plus #Turkey, #Macedonia and #Belarus. 2/13
Over the #forecast period we expect best growth performance in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans, although both will slow by 2020. Outlook for #CIS & #Ukraine weaker. 3/13
Read 14 tweets
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Mona
@Monaheart1229
This is a good article, talking about problems that we have to, that the GOP won't and that we CAN fix! But first, just #Vote damnit!
#SundayMotivation
The Myth of the Lazy Nonvoter
nyti.ms/2CvoRaT
2/"If history is any indicator, only around 40 percent of eligible voters will vote in the midterm elections. Most people assume that voter turnout remains this low because Americans are apathetic and simply don’t want to vote. But it’s more likely that most Americans do want to
3/"vote, and one of the root causes of low turnout is this country’s framework of restrictive voting laws. The United States is unique in allowing state laws to largely govern voting in federal elections. Ever since key federal protections were dismantled by the Supreme Court in
Read 41 tweets

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