I’m going to end up discussing US politics from a systems perspective, so if you’re interested in that, please hold on until I get there.
My current focus is the application of systems thinking to the social sciences.
1/12
My current focus is the application of systems thinking to the social sciences.
1/12
I believe that these disciplines can be turned into a model-based experimental science, in which one universe with which the investigator interacts is a simulator, and the other is the universe of real-world experimental data,
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2/12
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2/12
and the investigator plays with the simulator in order to build a reproducible and testable model of the dynamics occurring in the real world. This approach is an extension of the discipline of System Dynamics created by Jay W. Forrester. (See
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3/12
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The “extension” part is the incorporation of (1)state machines into the model (analogously to what @stephen_wolfram has done in his book “A New Kind of Science”
wolframscience.com ) and (2)global variables, in order to account for emergence and phase transition.
4/12
wolframscience.com ) and (2)global variables, in order to account for emergence and phase transition.
4/12
I am finding that a single model may well apply to two disciplines that are now treated as separate but, in my view, may use the same model with two different time scales:
Politics (days - years)
History (decades - centuries)
5/12
Politics (days - years)
History (decades - centuries)
5/12
But my purpose now is to apply systems thinking to current US politics. I hope to encourage readers to think about politics as a system whose observable characteristics are emergent, with changes in these emergent characteristics as phase transitions.
6/12
6/12
The Republicans in the US Senate are interesting right now. There is an amount of stickiness that commentators can't explain. These commentators are thinking linearly and don’t appreciate the connection between the internal political dynamics and macro emergent phenomena.
7/12
7/12
(I’m waiting for @anelsona’s “Shadow Network” for more insight into the internal dynamics.)
If I am correct, we are at an unusual moment in history to witness a political phase transition, and I am asking you to watch it with me in real time.
8/12
If I am correct, we are at an unusual moment in history to witness a political phase transition, and I am asking you to watch it with me in real time.
8/12
You can learn more about the physics of phase transitions from this lecture from @sfiscience on the origins of life:
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Notice in particular “cooperatively maintained states” from 3:06 to 3:45 and tearing/fracture propagation from 5:49 to 9:00
9/12
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Notice in particular “cooperatively maintained states” from 3:06 to 3:45 and tearing/fracture propagation from 5:49 to 9:00
9/12
In the Mafia world “cooperatively maintained states” is called “Omertà”, or the “code of honor”. This kind of model is what I have in mind for the Republicans in the US Senate in its current state. I suspect its formation and disruption can be modeled and simulated.
10/12
10/12
On June 13 I tweeted this
suggesting the possibility that the Republican Party might fracture by the time of its convention next August. In that thread I suggest two of the many possible causes for the beginning of that “tear”.
11/12
suggesting the possibility that the Republican Party might fracture by the time of its convention next August. In that thread I suggest two of the many possible causes for the beginning of that “tear”.
11/12
Now I’m offering a weaker proposition that seems probable enough that I’m inviting you to witness it with me and observe the process by which it happens: the disintegration of Republican hegemony in the US Senate. In my view it has already begun.
12/12
12/12
@threadreaderapp unroll please
