Thread by @JolyonMaugham

If the House of Commons were to approve a withdrawal agreement on 19 October, and there was no extension, we would have No Deal on 31 October. Here's why. THREAD.

Approving a withdrawal agreement in the Commons by 19 October is not sufficient to enable that withdrawal agreement to be ratified in Parliament or the EU. But it does mean that the PM has no obligation to apply for an extension. waitingfortax.com/2019/09/15/the…

To ratify the withdrawal agreement a number of further steps have to be taken on the UK side. If they are not taken the agreement can't be ratified.

These steps are set out in section 13 of the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018.

First, both the withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have to be laid before the Commons and agreed. These documents will together be many hundreds of pages long. As matters stand, they do not even exist.

Commons has neither seen nor debated either.

Second, the House of Lords can take up to five *sitting* days to debatw the withdrawal agreement and framework.

I am not an expert on procedure in the Lords but my understand is that this debate cannot be guillotined.

Third, we need a whole new Act of Parliament to implement the Withdrawal Agreement. That Act would also need to pass the Commons and the Lords.

The Institute for Government says this type of bill usually takes 10-40 sitting days. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/wit…

Difficult or impossible to see how all of those steps on the UK side can be taken in the period from Sunday 20th October to the 31st of October.

But that is not all.

There are also legal preconditions to the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement under EU law, Article 50.

The first is that it also needs to be approved by the European Parliament, which will act on the advice of its Constitutional Affairs Committee.

Remember, the Constitutional Affairs Committee has not even seen the Withdrawal Agreement and so is in no position to advise on this agreement of many hundreds of pages.

The second EU law requirement is that the European Council also has to approve the agreement.

Standing back, even if you assume there is no secret deal done between the Government and the Hard Right of the so-called Conservative Party to support the Withdrawal Agreement in return for No Deal, these steps can't sensibly happen between 20 October and 31 October.

Standing further back, an MP who votes for any withdrawal agreement on 19 October is handing to the Prime Minister a free choice between either (1) breaking his promise and asking for an extension or (2) delivering No Deal and leaving on 31 October.

Don't be that MP.

ENDS.

The Treaty also has to be ratified on the EU side.

The first step to be taken is that the European Parliament would also have to consent to the Withdrawal Agreement.

As Europe's foremost democratic institution it will take seriously the responsibility Article 50 places on it.