On Oct. 2, the US won a case at WTO on the Airbus subsidies dispute. The USTR immediately announced that the US would tax European goods (10% on planes imports, 25% on other EU goods) by Oct. 18. How much trade will be taxed and what are the consequences? (1/N) #BdFeco 
Based on the product list published by the USTR (bit.ly/2B7XYXt) about $11.7 bn of US imports from EU will be subject to new import tariffs. France and Germany, who directly export planes to USA, are more (directly) impacted. UK & Spain as well via taxes on other goods.
In % of total exports, France is more (directly) impacted as its exports to the US are more concentrated in targeted products. This would change of course if the trade dispute was extended to US cars imports from EU (where Germany has a larger trade share).
What trade impact? Based on the import elasticity to tariff changes estimated in Amiti et al. (about -1.2, see nber.org/papers/w25672.…) the yearly export loss for France would be above $600 million, about $400 million for Germany... (partial equilibrium impact)
Note that UK is an interesting case as it is not DIRECTLY exporting airplanes to the US in the targeted product category, based on 2017 US census data. BUT it is exporting parts & components to the EU so it will be INDIRECTLY impacted via contamination along the value chain...
... In a Brexit context, this is clearly bad news and a new difficulty for signing rapidly a new trade deal with the US!
Last : this is about what you get when you add-up the protectionist numbers on the US side (N/N)
