So optimism definitely rising that deal can now be done. Govt seems to be moving in EU's direction. Another quick update - this time from Paris. Think French are in a double-bind or even a treble-bind. They are keen for a deal but fear that EU – and their own – interests may 1/
be trampled in rush to meet the end of week or 31 Oct deadline. They are also 1) unhappy with a further extension of A50 but ready to be persuaded to go along 2) uncomfortable with dealing with Commons request for an extension against Johnson’s wishes - if agreement doesn't 2/
come together. Macron is more worried than other EU Govts about the “level playing field” – or unlevel playing field – implications of the deal under discussion. French officials point to a little reported remark by Europe Minister Amélie de Montchalin to a French TV station 3/
last week. Montchalin “We have to make sure that norms are respected. I don’t want to be confronted with a fiscal paradise on Europe’s doorstep. We expect our own businesses to observe environmental, social and fiscal rules. We have to make sure that things are fair for them.” 4/
More specifically, France is willing in principle to go along with some kind of NI only solution on customs. It is worried, however, by Johnson’s move away from the LPF commitment of May & especially worried about combination of 1/ a possible EU single-market backdoor through 5/
NI and 2/ a UK which is moving away from EU standards on health, environment, workers’ rights. View is that this can be squared but only by adding further complexity to what is already a convoluted proposal – and when time for working out detailed guarantees is lacking 6/
I hear one solution could be system of flexible tariffs between UK and EU which “punish” UK if it undercuts EU standards. But how could that be squared with keeping part of UK – ie Northern Ireland – in EU single market/de facto Customs Union? 7/
So. Shortage of time is forcing Johnson to move very fast, in French view. They see the situation as the reverse of what Johnson/Cummings claim. Far from making Deal less likely, the Benn Act has forced UK Govt to make biggish concessions to avoid an A50 extension 8/
But time is also working against the EU, France fears. Everyone is under pressure to bring the circus to an end but France doesn’t want to be isolated as only Govt saying… “hang on, this could be difficult for us down the road.” ENDS
