So Letwin passes. Benn Act kicks in; @BorisJohnson forced to request A50 extension. So all bad news for Boris? No. His allies weren't confident of winning today’s MV; probs one reason it was shelved. And the coalition of MPs who supported Letwin’s move will now likely crumble 1/
For example: some who wanted to take no-deal off table will now be ready to vote for deal eg 17 of 21 former Tories who lost whip for backing Benn Act. Ditto several Labour backbenchers, which Govt will now continue to woo (see my tweets from last night) 2/
So BJ hasn't given up completing Brexit by 31 Oct, & will move quickly to get back on track. The MV he shelved today now scheduled for Mon; if blocked by Bercow, 2nd reading of WAB – a vote in principle - pencilled in for Tues could provide momentum for Boris' deal he seeks 3/
Today's vote tells us that BJ has 306 MPs in bag for his deal; he needs 14 more to get to 320 he needs. DUP’s 10 votes are lost cause; so Labour MPs representing 2016 Leave areas hold key. As I said earlier this week, Govt's target is 15-20 of them 4/
Today, 6 Labour MPs defied @jeremycorbyn by opposing Letwin’s proposal; 5 abstained. After counting ex-Tories who backed Letwin & are now likely to back deal, BJ needs only 5 or 6 more Labour votes to get a majority. He's within touching distance 5/
So in lifting the threat of no-deal, Letwin, who will now vote for Boris' deal, might not turn out to be the enemy portrayed by Team Boris - but the man who in fact paved the way for approval of his deal. Ministers concur majority now likely for BJ deal on Mon/Tues 6/
Govt will now request A50 extension. I suspect EU will keep their powder dry for some days; see how events play out in London - esp as Govt will signal it intends to rush Bill through Commons & Lords at breakneck speed by 31 October, so an extension might not be needed ENDS
