Quick thoughts on drama playing out in Westminster, based on chats with all sides. EU is desperate to get Brexit over with. But they're stuck. If Letwin goes over & 2nd reading of WAB on Tues now serves as de facto MV, 27 will be forced to entertain another extension request 1/7
Plan as of Thurs was for @eucopresident to take the temperature of leaders in a round of calls. If uncontentious, agreement by written procedure. If leaders have to meet, that's not good sign. Suspect 27 will grant to 31 Jan if that's what Govt requests, in line with Benn Act 2/7
Some big MS worry about offering longer - could be read as EU paving way for 2nd Ref. But many equally influential EU states think 31 Jan won't be long enough; elections might not even happen until Dec/Jan; how long will it take for a Govt to form & develop its Brexit policy? 3/7
Could June, with firm cut off date due to EU budget negotiations, be final compromise (& final extension)? Logically yes, but politically unlikely. On UK side based on some chats this morning: Big effort by Govt to defeat Letwin. Seen as wrecking amendment by Remainers 4/7
If Letwin passes - & I think it will - Govt likely to boycott main motion on grounds it then becomes meaningless not meaningful vote. @BorisJohnson will then make statement on what happens next. Also: Govt is not confident of majority today - was too close to call 5/7
Ministers insist that’s not why dividing vote - just that it would no longer be MV. They're also confident more Lab MPs will vote for 2nd reading if Letwin passes as no deal threat lifted. So cd still help Boris in medium term i.e. majority vote in principle for deal on Tues 6/7
But @BorisJohnson still has to swallow a delay he said he never would. And there could be some political drama on UK & EU side, depending on how that plays out ENDS
