So there will be no breakthrough tonight
If there *is* a ‘Deal’ tomorrow then it’ll be a draft or a framework of a Deal. It won’t be a final ratifiable text.
Then *if* Johnson brings this Deal back to London...
And *if* there is an extra Commons session on Saturday 19 October...
And *if* something is the put to a vote of MPs...
And *if* that were to get a majority of MPs (inc DUP, Tories that lost the whip, some Labour MPs)...
Then *still* this does not comply with the criteria of the Benn Act - it is not the text of a Withdrawal Agreement
So *if* Johnson respects the Benn Act, the UK is going to in any case ask for an Article 50 extension
*If* that request is made, the EU ought to accept it, knowing that getting the text of a Withdrawal Agreement agreed EU side will take a fortnight or so.
And ratification UK side will take some weeks as well, *if* it even is possible.
And ratification UK side will take some weeks as well, *if* it even is possible.
And then *even if* Johnson gets something through the Commons on 19 Oct, he faces further hurdles, not least to get his Queen’s Speech approved by the Commons on 21 or 22 Oct
And after all of that, *if* Johnson survives, he has to get a Deal ratified by Commons and Lords. Not a simple task, even *if* a first vote of some sort on 19 October passes
So please, *if* you’re trying to write something about all of these shenanigans, bear all of this in mind. Whatever happens tomorrow we are still a long way from a something workable here
Extension is odds on. That’s all we know.
/ends
Extension is odds on. That’s all we know.
/ends
