Gave my flash-reaction to the news of a #deal at our #BrinkofBrexit conference this morning.
FWIW, here's a couple of thoughts on which I'd happy to be proven wrong...
[wee thread]
1/?
FWIW, here's a couple of thoughts on which I'd happy to be proven wrong...
[wee thread]
1/?
We know #Brexit is having an impact already due to flux & uncertainty.
I don't think this #deal necessarily gets rid of this in either short term [will it get ratified?] or the long term [we, in theory, cd all be back pondering how to avoid a hard @BorderIrish in <6 yrs time]
2/
I don't think this #deal necessarily gets rid of this in either short term [will it get ratified?] or the long term [we, in theory, cd all be back pondering how to avoid a hard @BorderIrish in <6 yrs time]
2/
The #deal on the table enables a hard Brexit for GB (what consequences for east/west?) and puts off nitty gritty of major and difficult decisions for the future, and (in theory) into hands of NI MLAs...
3/
3/
The UK unilateral decision on the role of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive is one to watch, for sure.
What will be consequences of putting this decision at level of devolved body, for politics in NI? (could be positive as well as negative, but risky)
4/
What will be consequences of putting this decision at level of devolved body, for politics in NI? (could be positive as well as negative, but risky)
4/
In the 'cooling off period' after NI vote to opt out of Protocol... How would the quest for alternative arrangements be managed and decided upon? How tested? How would it be led?
How would NI economy and society fare in that two year period?
5/
How would NI economy and society fare in that two year period?
5/
In principle, this notion of consent means SM and CU integrity could be in the hands of 46 MLAs of a non-EU region. Deal doesn't completely erase chance of this issue returning.
Big risk for EU27 unless I'm missing something. Lacks future proofing.
6/
Big risk for EU27 unless I'm missing something. Lacks future proofing.
6/
In principle it also means 'economic and constitutional integrity of the UK' could well be put under strain from POV of even moderate unionism.
7/
7/
In sum, both sides have definitely compromised here. Does it give legal certainty or is there still too much subject to future, unknown political dynamics?
Backstop does not become a landing point but a slipway to the unknown.
Will be interesting to see how it is sold.
8/ends
Backstop does not become a landing point but a slipway to the unknown.
Will be interesting to see how it is sold.
8/ends
PS I may be being far too negative here and am still to read the detail so I am quite prepared to be corrected or to correct myself!
