Thread by @JenniferMerode

Michel Barnier told EU27 ambassadors important progress had been made on Brexit, but two sides not there yet.

Boris Johnson has made three big concessions to make this possible, but EU fears parliament could still block. EU27 have not seen the text. Time is running out.
1.

Concession No1. (most surprising)
The Level Playing Field is back. Boris Johnson has agreed that the UK must be in line with EU norms on climate, environment and workers’ rights for a Free Trade Agreement.
2.

Michel Barnier has always said UK’s proximity and size means LFP was much more important than distant countries such as Canada and Korea. EU diplomats had fretted about Singapore on Thames. Tonight MB told them he had guarantees for fair competition for an FTA
3.

Political Declaration will state goal for zero tariffs and unlimited quotas. N clear if EU still intends to tie zero tariffs to fishing rights (as stated in a previous document). Fishing remains a big issue for Macron - he once said it was a “lever” in rest of talks.
4.

Concession No 2 (on the cards) Back to Northern Ireland only backstop. It’s not called the NI-only backstop, but the proposal of February 2018 (i.e. when EU suggested it). UK has accepted NI will be subject to EU customs rules and oversight of EU authorities, including ECJ.
5.

On customs, two exceptions for goods moving GB to NI
1. Personal goods, e.g. English person moves furniture to NI.
2. Goods not immediate consumption in NI. Examples? Don’t know. To be defined and agreed by Joint Committee, i.e. by mutual agreement, so EU retains control.
6.

But EU has moved on original NI-only backstop. This is Schrödinger’s customs union, i.e.NI legally in UK C-U, practically in EU. So NI businesses can claim refunds on tariff differences. i.e Johnson can claim NI will benefit from post-Brexit trade deals.
7.

Concession No 3 Consent.
Boris Johnson has abandoned DUP veto. New system envisages allowing Stormont Assembly to vote whether rebranded backstop applies by simple majority of those present in chamber. First vote scheduled 4 years after entry into force.
8.

But can be rejected? Yes. If voted down there will be a two-year cooling off period. These two years will have to be used to find a solution and NI will have to shoulder the consequences.

Some EU confidence NI will support rebranded backstop into future.
9.

But VAT. It’s not agreed. And that's a serious problem. UK wants NI out of EU VAT rules. European commission is worried about damage to the credibility of internal market, trade distortion if that happens.
10.

And everyone acutely aware this is not a done deal anyway. Uncertainty about whether HoC will approve this deal. Some uneasy feelings that deal once again now in the hands of Westminster (and there isn’t even a deal).
11.

The other big constraint is time. Several EU ambassadors are very unhappy there is no legal text they can share with their capitals.

Not enough time to prepare the summit. Not enough time until 31 October. But tonight there was no talk of extension.

To be continued...
12.