Thread by @ThyConsigliori

1) So here we go again. Following FOX's unbelievably flawed poll a few days ago, the one falsely claiming that 51% of American's approve Trump's Impeachment and Removal from office, we now have Gallup entering the fray as well. Check it out.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 2) I'm shocked to find myself at least thanking FOX for their professionalism - choking a bit - in giving us their data methods. Their methods were hellaciously flawed, but at least they published them as every pollster should. Not so with Gallup.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 3) Perhaps other analysts can do better than I did, but I'll quote all I could find in a moment, and it isn't much. Before I do, what about this extraordinary, historic claim: MIRRORS NIXON? I can't claim the ability to analyze it in detail but I can say, on the surface, hogwash.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 4) Just use your logic. They voted, on the floor of the House, to Impeach, back then. I know we Americans can be the biggest dupes, but I'm not buying that America believes in a vote-free Impeachment. It makes no logical sense. With that, I'm letting go of the history. It's bunk.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 5) So, let's look at the sum total of all I'm able to find on the methodology Gallup has used. Here it is, in full, in the tweets that follow...

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 6) "Are the Gallup Poll Social Series samples weighted?

"Yes, Gallup weights samples to correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cellphone users in the two sampling frames.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 7) "Gallup also weights its final samples to match the U.S. population according to gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only, landline only, both, and cellphone mostly).

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 8) "Demographic weighting targets are based on the most recent Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the most recent National Health Interview Survey.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 9) "Population density targets are based on the most recent U.S. Census."

That's it. That's all we get. We'll talk about the missing components, next, but don't take my word for any of this, go check yourself:

gallup.com/201200/gallup-…

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 10) It's tough to decide where to begin on just how hellaciously flawed this is. Well, let's start here. The model? The sampling model? And not just in general for some series over time, by land or cell phone, the great headline of the moment. What was the model, for this one?

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 11) The model? Yeah. What percentage of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans were contacted in their sampling, from which to extrapolate all of America's desires? The failure to publish the model is absolute malpractice. Again, perhaps it's there and I failed to find it.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 12) I suspect not. I suspect that Gallup's hellacious bias would reveal itself, so they've decided just not to publish it. If anyone can show me I'm wrong, I'll retract the accusation, and reevaluate my position. I promise. But I'm assuming I'm not wrong right now.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 13) And IF I'm not wrong, what do we see here? We see the use of gross statements of conclusions WITHOUT the data basis upon which those conclusions are SUPPOSED to be drawn. That is, by simply stating "the truth" without backing it up by data, any conclusion can be made at will.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 14) As we've discussed before, Fake Polls are the handmaidens of Fake News, and Fake Science is the temple of the Progressive Left. It is an insult to religion to compare their distortions of science to religious dogma. That, I strongly fear, is precisely what we see here.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 15) As a young boy growing up, in my religious education I was taught that: "God Said It, I Believe It, And That's Enough For Me." What the Progressive Left can't admit is: "Fake Science Said It, You Must Believe It, And That's Enough For You." Dogma. Gallup says it. All done.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 16) So, what's the answer? First, obviously, don't believe their idiotic and unfounded statements. They lie, lie, use statistics to lie, and lie some more. Don't believe it. Protect your mind. Second, express your disbelief strong, loud, long, repetitively, and clear.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 17) You might consider retweeting the first tweet of this thread, for instance. More important, let everyone you know, anyone who will listen, that you're sick to death of the media manipulation. Join President Trump in denouncing the dishonest Fake News for the liars they are.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 18) Third, run it up the chain of command. That is, reach out to any politician you can contact, and most especially your House Representative and your state's Senators in Congress. Make a noise like an earthquake. Let them know where you stand, and most especially your Senators.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 19) Why especially your Senators? Simple. Who cares what the House votes? Let them vote for Impeachment. But if our Republican Senate betrays us, let them know there will be hell to pay like they've never seen before, cannot imagine, and don't know how to conceive.

@JosephJFlynn1 @BarbaraRedgate @GoJackFlynn @JackPosobiec @TamaraLeigh_llc @JoshuaMacias @1GigiSims @RealPeachyKeen2 20) Gallup is no scientific operation. They sold out their integrity long ago. Maybe we'll build an honest polling outfit one day. But that's not today. Today, just know, while the Senate holds, our President is safe. If not, they'll have to face us. They don't want to face us.