Here's a thread on the consent issue, the subject of a lot of controvesy and confusion:
1/ @rtenews reported, quoting two sources, at 1410 CET yesterday that the consent issue had been resolved and the DUP were on board. @DUPleader Arlene Foster dismissed this as nonsense
1/ @rtenews reported, quoting two sources, at 1410 CET yesterday that the consent issue had been resolved and the DUP were on board. @DUPleader Arlene Foster dismissed this as nonsense
2/ However, other well placed sources said the text on consent was "stable" for most of the day yesterday and did not change at all, from when @MichelBarnier briefed EU27 ambassadors last night until today
3/ British sources say texts were still being exchanged till late last night, but EU side insisting there were no last minute changes to the consent issue
4/ So what has been agreed?
5/ Important to remember, this is no longer an insurance policy that would kick in if other solutions, ie an FTA and Alternative Arrangements, don't work. At the end of the transition, either Dec 2020 or Dec 2022, we go to this new system directly. Therefore it's not a backstop
6/ There could be an FTA agreed in the meantime, but that would just make the arrangements work more easily. If there are zero tariffs and few non-trade barriers, then the rationale for checks on the Irish Sea would diminish
7/ Four years after the end of the transition the NI Assembly would vote by a simple majority whether to opt out of this arrangement or stay in. If a simple majority votes to stay in, then the vote comes around again four years later
8/ The result of the vote, even though it's taken by simple majority, can be tested for the cross-community majority criteria as per the GFA. If there is a cross-community majority in favour of staying in, then the next vote doesn't come around for another *eight* years.
9/ If there is a simple majority in favour of staying in, but a reading of the cross-community aspect of that vote shows a majority of one community or another has voted against, then there will be an independent review of how the arrangements are working. That would be a UK body
10/ If a simple majority decides to opt out of the arrangements, then there is a two year cooling off period during which all sides have to find an alternative that meets the needs of the GFA and avoids a hard border on the island of Ireland
11/ If there is nothing found then the default is a hard border. But for that to come about two things would have to happen: a majority of MLAs would have to effectively vote for a hard border; and there would have to be either no EU-UK FTA, or a hard Canada-style arms length one
12/ If one side tries believes they don't have the numbers and tries to collapse Stormont there would still be a one-off consent vote, even though no MLAs are normally sitting. The vote would be based on those who turn up, and would again be based on a simple majority
