1. Let’s put what Ian Dunt said yesterday into context. (Thread)
2. Parliament voted for alternative arrangements in the Brady amendment, and we can use that number to determine who in parliament had expressed a preference on this particular issue. It passed by 16 votes. 
3. Theresa May got get some minor changes to the political declaration regarding the backstop on 11th March ahead of the third meaningful vote. It gained vote share from the previous vote.
4. Based on the people who voted for those alternative arrangements who didn’t vote for MV3 we can surmise that there was a maximum of 38 available votes by getting rid of the backstop.
(Not a perfect methodology but it's a good indicator)
(Not a perfect methodology but it's a good indicator)
5. I have it that those votes would have taken the vote well over the line.
6. However, he has done it without the DUP, which amounted to a quarter of those votes. Unless I've made a mistake, I make it with the same abstentions, it’s 314 for the deal and 306 against.
7. MV3 wasn’t the first time the bill had been to the house, so we should consider that there was some abstentions that were not there for MV1 or MV2.
There are 9 votes which will also increase the majority required.
There are 9 votes which will also increase the majority required.
8. Taking out speakers, deputy speakers, and Sinn Féin, the first thing to note is that the two Conservatives that abstained in MV3 are part of Boris Johnson’s government. They will be expected to vote yes.
9. Looking at how they have voted on the previous meaningful votes (which is not a great methodology) and Brexit political leaning and I think this leaves Boris just 2 votes shy of winning.
10. Which can be found, along with 2 which are not certain, in the list of MPs who didn’t vote for the Brady amendment, but voted against MV3, and would most likely vote for this deal:
John Redwood and Christopher Chope.
Reasonable assumptions, I'd say.
John Redwood and Christopher Chope.
Reasonable assumptions, I'd say.
11. Which, as I have it, means Boris’ vote gets over the line by precisely one vote….
12. At least, I would have, but it’s impossible for everybody to vote the way they did before.
13. Chris Davies can’t vote ‘Yes’ this time around, and his vote goes to LibDem Jane Dodds, meaning Boris Johnson’s and Dominic Cumming’s deal could fail to carry because someone was convicted of false declarations.
14. Therefore, I have Boris losing by 1 vote,
and it is that close
and it does assume a full turnout
and it does assume people who voted no in MV3 don't move
and it is that close
and it does assume a full turnout
and it does assume people who voted no in MV3 don't move
15. There are also uncertainties like Jo Johnson who may abstain, and that in itself could hand the result to Boris. Jo had misgivings about May’s deal, I don’t know how he feels about this one.
16. I could not find Ruth Jones voting on a meaningful vote, so I have had to count her as an abstention. If you are in her constituency, it’s worth pointing out she almost certainly needs to be there for the parliamentary arithmetic if this is to happen.
17. People can use HeyMP to tell your MP to stop Brexit, but there are other ways this can be done more productively depending on who your MP is.
18. If your MP is pro-Brexit, then don’t write asking them to stop Brexit, and just write to complain about the deal.
19. If the Brexit vote was about sovereignty, then this country has less sovereignty than it had in the EU. This should be a concern if you are a Remaniner or a Leaver.
They will have leave voters mailing them with this same point. It's worth aligning.
They will have leave voters mailing them with this same point. It's worth aligning.
20. The border solution as it stands traps Northern Ireland into the backstop. The options are in the future they can vote for a hard border. That’s not a practical choice.
It's the illusion of sovereignty.
It's the illusion of sovereignty.
21. If you MP is someone who didn't back leave but has voted for the deals before, point out the danger of this loss of sovereignty in terms of a future general election and the Brexit party.
22. If they have shown concerns of the economics before, then make an extra effort to point out that this deal is worse than the one they were conflicted about before.
23. And don’t stop with the ones that voted ‘yes’ in MV3. If your MP voted no make sure that you show them some love and also point out this is a worse deal than they voted against.
24. The fact is, this is really tight, and Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings know this all too well. This is why we have seen them bluster and bullshit in the debate.
25. There is a good chance that the Letwin amendment may pass, but that’s another thing to bring up with those who are not hard-core leavers but will be inclined to vote leave.
26. I may seem pointless, but I really think there is value in writing to show love to those who support us, and to those who don’t and may switch then complain about sovereignty and the economics.
27. If I thought Brexit was about sovereignty I wouldn’t have run the maths on this because this vote wouldn’t be close to passing.
If you have a pro-Brexit MP, there are good arguments against this deal you should be making
If you have a pro-Brexit MP, there are good arguments against this deal you should be making
28. If Boris loses tomorrow by a landslide, then I’m only too happy to been proved wrong, but I think this is the moment the leave campaigners sell out the UK's sovereignty, and with it, the very last of their arguments.
/End
/End
Apparently Ruth may not have been an MP, and if her predecessor didn't vote, the change wouldn't have been flagged by my process which flagged that discrepancy. (Sorry, Ruth)
