It looks as if we are heading for an election during an extension period.
I can’t see a majority for a second referendum amendment. And once there is an extension it’s hard on those numbers to see how Labour could resist either putting down a VONC (likely to pass) or agreeing to an election if Johnson goes for it too.
There’s presumably going to be an election soon anyway given the DUP position.
And if it is the only way left to stop Johnson’s deal going through before that election (which it looks as if it is), I can’t see how the opposition parties (including the DUP) could do anything other than bring it on.
And given the Benn Act, there is no real risk of a crash out happening before 31/1/20, leaving space for an election: either the HoC or the EU would have to choose/agree an earlier crash out, which neither will if an election is happening.
So the fate of Brexit hangs on a wildly volatile electorate, the extent of successful tactical voting on both leave and remain sides, and the capricious lottery of the first past the post system.
