A few thoughts on the #Catalunya crisis from a foreigner living here (1/n)
1 - You need to know & respect the specific history of Catalunya in the context of Spain during the 30s. Reading #Orwell’s “Homage to Catalunya” is a good start.
2 - Recall Spain went through a major civil war with over a million dead, and their “transition” to democracy was very different than Germany’s and Italy’s (more “continuity”). Barcelona was the anti-regime / anarchist capital for a period. Some wounds are still open.
3 - Also recognize Spain, today, is a very democratic state by all measures. Spain has a constitution that was ratified by everyone (Catalunya included) *a few decades ago*, not centuries ago.
4 - Analogies with Hong Kong and Brexit are applicable only at the level of concept, not substance. Spain is no China (more on this later). Brexit is a wholly different issue about being part or not of a custom / free movement union (UK does not even use the Euro anyway).
5 - The Brexit case also shows that, in order to change the fundamental trajectory of a territory, you should have a *much* bigger majority than 50%.
Requiring 2/3 or 70% seems more reasonable.

Not there by any stretch in Catalunya. Even 50% is very debatable.
6 - And if we were to count the true support for Catalan independence, we should have a true "skin in the game" vote.
Catalans that live abroad not allowed to vote.
Foreigners living here & contributing to society allowed to vote.
7 - (The Catalan elite is all too happy to promote independence and at the same time enjoy a very low cost army of spanish-speaking immigrants from South America as nannies, service person, etc - give those guys a chance to vote, too)
8 - Catalan Independentism is a very recent phenomenon, mostly invented by local politicians in the last 10 years, as an “escape clause” to respond to discontent for austerity measures.
Look at the data
9 - The current generation of Catalan political leaders is lacking any vision whatsoever.
Would Catalunya apply to be part of the EU & why would the other EU countries accept it?
Would they use the Euro? Would the ECB back up the banks and why?
10 - And let’s not even go on to whether FC Barcelona would still be admitted by UEFA to play in the Champions League 😂.
11 - The current Catalan President @QuimTorraiPla cannot even decide whether he is the leaders of the independentists (50% of voters at best) or the head of the local police / Mossos (which he formally is, but keeps talking as if the Mossos were not reporting to him).
@QuimTorraiPla 12 - In other words, he sympathizes with the demonstrators but heads the police that counters them, and he does not represent half of the population either.
He is just plain inadequate for the role.
@QuimTorraiPla 13 - There’s also been a lot of chatter about the “history of oppression” from Spain.
Those folks need to get real. I have spent weeks in Tibet (2010), Xinjiang (2013), Iran (2008).

Go there & then come back to explain where is “oppression” in Catalunya.
@QuimTorraiPla 14 - (Do people know that the primary language in schools is Catalan? How’s that "oppression"?)
@QuimTorraiPla 15 - Vandalism helps no-one. The short term effect will be to strengthen the right-wing in Spain, i.e. the ones most averse to dialogue (Sanchez has been one of the most open). There is little or no sympathy from the rest of Spain, and that matters - if you believe in democracy.
@QuimTorraiPla 16 - To sum up, surely there is such a thing as a “Catalan identity”, with its romantic aspects (same as there is a “California identity”, a “Shanghai identity”, etc) & it is something to respect and even cherish and admire (I do).
@QuimTorraiPla 17 - On the other hand, there is no “oppression” & there is just no significant majority to start a risk-all enterprise to turn a region into a new country at whatever the costs.
Nor there is any sensible vision or leadership on how go from A to B.
@QuimTorraiPla 18 - This is mostly a debacle from the whole political class in Spain that cannot find some creative / face-saving way out & is instead resorting to a local strain of populism & demagoguery on both sides.
It needs to be called out as such. (/END)
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