a) The Socialists are set to win, a first since 2008
b) Five national parties will get over 10% of the vote
c) The far-right will enter parliament, a first since 1982
d) The conservative PP faces an assault on the right not seen since the UCD collapsed in the 80s
The right (PP + Ciudadanos + Vox) has focused on #Catalonia, hammering Sánchez's credibility and accusing him of being ready to cut the country into pieces for the sake of remaining in office.
It's been a war between two photos: Pedralbes (where PM Sánchez met Catalan leader Torra) and Colón (where the three leaders of the right met to oppose Sánchez)
Here's how: politico.eu/article/spain-…
a) It's the main line of attack against Sánchez
b) The PSOE has usually relied on a good result in Catalonia (+ Andalusia) to win at the national level
c) There's an ongoing fight for dominance of the separatist camp, with ERC set to make gains
a) Support for the territorial status quo is at the highest level in years
b) In March, 11% said Catalan secession was one of the country's 3 main problems, for 7.1% in February
a) They're overrepresented in parliament.
b) The electoral system is less proportional there, providing the frontrunner a bonus.
c) They've been a stronghold of the PP but now they're up for grabs
a) It ruled out any agreement with Socialist Sánchez but didn't rule out one with the far-right
b) The bet looks obvious: Watch the PP crumble and become the hegemon center-right party in Spain.
Will it work?
A lot of it will depend on Vox ability to steal votes from the left and mobilize people who don't normally vote.
Will it stay like that?
Second one, Vox final campaign rally:
So Vox prioritizes bashing Catalan separatists and promoting national pride over its anti-immigrant message (but it's still there).
All three polls made over the last few days of the campaign trail provide similar results.
Official figures will still take some time...