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So... Hints from ministers that @BorisJohnson would pull WA Bill if he loses programme motion to ram through Commons in 3 days, as well as vote on hostile amendment eg customs union 1/2
Some MPs believe latter but not former. Normally a PM would take slight delay and victory on 2nd reading. But perhaps Boris would grab any chance of an election? 2/2
Some ministers privately expect short extension. Which suggests Boris would not go for election if he loses programme motion. But do they know his mind?
Plus: Could be trade off with ex-Tories. Less likely to vote against programme motion if Govt gives ground on transitional period
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
As we argued, @BorisJohnson announced Govt will bring in short Bill tomorrow for 12 December election. After he failed to win 434 votes needed for election under Fixed-term Parliaments Act - only 299 votes for, with 70 against 1/3
Lib Dems & SNP, who want 9 Dec election, will now negotiate over precise date. Want assurance Boris will not bring back his Brexit deal to Parliament before election . Still a live debate about that in Tory land 2/3
.@jeremycorbyn appeared to be moving towards backing Dec election; said will look & scrutinise election Bill. Still several hurdles to jump, including risk of amendments. But big step towards Dec election 3/3
Read 4 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
What's our latest view on #Brexit? Short thread. Odds of pre-Brexit, pre-Xmas election are rising. @jeremycorbyn will meet his Shadow Cabinet before this afternoon’s vote to consider a last-minute change of heart, to avoid being “the last man standing” out against an election 1/
If Labour blocks today’s move, think @BorisJohnson will likely adopt a plan similar to Saturday's Lib Dem-SNP initiative: to claim ownership & change proposed date slightly, rather than vote for plan advanced by opposition parties. Lib Dems & SNP could live with this 2/
This is because both Lib Dems & SNP see advantages in election being held before #Brexit. Unclear what Lib Dems would offer voters in election held after UK leaves EU 3/
Read 9 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
I'd be surprised if Tories don't ultimately support LibDem/SNP move. Polling looks good for @BorisJohnson - party & personal. Pre Brexit election is favoured by Johnson's aides. Will allow Tories to run on a "We'll finish the job" platform; mix in some "people ve parliament" 1/3
While picking off Labour leave seats in the North & Midlands & keeping soft Tory votes in the South (as BJ will run on a deal platform). Yes, there's risk of amendments. But macro arguments for Tories to support LibDem/SNP coalition on this much stronger 2/3
Puts @jeremycorbyn in a real bind; personally favours an early vote but won't be able to deliver (at least 100) his MPs. Labour justification is cliff edge on Jan 31 or Dec 2020 but real reason is party & personal approval polling looks abysmal for Corbyn 3/3
Read 4 tweets

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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Right. It's going to be the longest day of parliamentary drama you have ever experienced. And it kicks off now.
The Speaker, John Bercow, is currently deciding what to do about the election for the new Speaker, given it is now ramming right up against the election debate.
Basically it comes down to: Do they hold the Speaker's election before or after the election? Bercow said he was standing down on October 31st. But some want him to hold out for after the election.
Read 188 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Right we'll be off in a bit. Parliamentary debate on second reading of the government's legislation implementing the Brexit bill kicks off shortly parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8b…
It's going to be an awful day. Several hours of debate. Then a vote on second reading. Then, assuming that passes, a vote on the programme motion. Then three hours of committee.
The second reading vote does not seem that important. Many MPs who will vote for amendments, and who might even ultimately vote against the bill, will vote for it at second reading in order to get it onto the amendment stage.
Read 226 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
On the summary exit declarations, @SteveBarclay mentioned today. It's important to understand what they are, why they are submitted and how they differ from #customs declarations.
/1
@SteveBarclay Exit/entry declarations are slightly different than customs decs. Before import/export there is a requirement to submit a pre-arrival, pre-departure notification - info that allows authorities to control what's moving across borders from a safety and security perspective.
/2
@SteveBarclay This information is mainly used for risk analysis and not to calculate the amount of duties due or apply other trade policy measures as in the case of customs declarations.
In principle, they are submitted by the carrier not the importer/exporter
/3
Read 16 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Apart from not meeting any of the conditions an alternative arrangement was supposed to met (apart from a super narrow definition of no checks AT the border) I have two main problems with this new proposal /1
1) It doesn't provide any simplifications for SMEs and makes it much harder and expensive for them to trade. In the absence of a trusted trader programme that would work for SMEs, they can either use transit or submit a pre-lodged customs declaration /2
Both option require SMEs to use services of a #customs agent which can wipe out the entire profit margin (if you can find one that is, as this industry not currently developed in the area as not really needed until now) /3
Read 9 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
On #customs formalities and documentation under various #Brexit scenarios. Procedures and documentation required for customs clearance can be confusing. Particularly, the difference between a single market and a customs union seems to be unclear. /1
Under different Brexit scenarios there will be different customs formalities and supporting documentation traders will need to complete/ provide for customs clearance (from an upcoming blogpost): /2
This is a simplified view - additional formalities are required depending on the type of goods (e.g. agricultural, excise) and other supporting documentation may be needed (e.g. licenses, certificates, value declaration, insurance docs, tariff quota docs etc). /3
Read 5 tweets

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