What's our latest view on #Brexit? Short thread. Odds of pre-Brexit, pre-Xmas election are rising. @jeremycorbyn will meet his Shadow Cabinet before this afternoon’s vote to consider a last-minute change of heart, to avoid being “the last man standing” out against an election 1/
If Labour blocks today’s move, think @BorisJohnson will likely adopt a plan similar to Saturday's Lib Dem-SNP initiative: to claim ownership & change proposed date slightly, rather than vote for plan advanced by opposition parties. Lib Dems & SNP could live with this 2/
This is because both Lib Dems & SNP see advantages in election being held before #Brexit. Unclear what Lib Dems would offer voters in election held after UK leaves EU 3/
And SNP have momentum & privately prefer election before trial of former leader & First Minister Alex Salmond - which starts in January. Key Johnson aides, incl Cummings, have also long seen early pre-Brexit election as preferable to a delayed one (see earlier threads on this) 4/
So there is a Tory, LibDem-SNP coalition with good reasons to support Dec election. BJ will have to abandon hope of getting his deal through Commons; suspect he won't lose much sleep over this - a price worth paying to secure an early election 5/
Some @10DowningStreet aides, Cabinet ministers & Tory backbenchers worry about Dec poll. Want BJ to plough on with Bill, win approval for it & cash in electoral reward next spring. But they'll likely rally behind Dec contest once BJ takes path cleared for him by Lib Dems & SNP 6/
Labour was happy to let BJ “stew in his own Brexit juice,” as one shadow minister put it. But now outmanoeuvred. Arguably marks end of Remain Alliance which has caused headaches for Govt eg by seizing control of Commons agenda to force Johnson to seek A50 extension 7/
Although there is distrust between Tories & other parties, there is also scope for mutually beneficial trade-off. In private talks with Tories, the Lib Dems& SNP will likely pledge not to introduce amendments (& there wouldn't be time to amend voting registers before Dec poll) 8/
So our revised % therefore: pre-Brexit, pre-Xmas GE is 75%, from 55% previously ENDS
