It seems as though there is a full-on push by the authorities to prove that Lebanon is back to normal following Hariri's so-called reform paper.
To this end, we've seen a few battles play out today: (THREAD)
To this end, we've seen a few battles play out today: (THREAD)
THE STREETS: I haven't done an analysis, but judging from the notifications I got today, there appeared to be something of a running battle between protesters closing streets and authorities reopening them. Roads would close, reopen, close, etc.
The roads are of vital importance because if they're closed, the protesters have already won. No roads means businesses are shut and schools are shut. The country grinds to a halt, all because Hariri/Aoun/Berri/et al refuse to take the goddamn hint.
THE SCHOOLS: The Education Minister (@ChehayebAkram of the PSP) ordered schools to reopen tomorrow. But then people resisted. Students, teachers & professors started organizing strikes. Schools and universities started to openly defy the ministry.
And then the minister caved.
And then the minister caved.
Chehayeb ordered schools and vocational institutes closed, but didn't say anything about universities. But by that point (a couple hours ago?) strikes were organized at universities and at least a few admins had said they would close anyway. They all might close.
THE BUSINESSES: I'm the weakest on this, because I was (ironically) cooped up at work all day. I understand a lot of people had to go back to their jobs today. The end of the month (and hopefully a paycheck) is coming soon, so it's tricky not to show up.
This is apparently why a lot of people didn't show up to protest earlier in the day, but then we saw huge numbers this evening. I don't know if this is fully convincing, especially given sky-high unemployment, but could certainly be the case for middle class types.
THE MEDIA: Two huge things happened today.
1. The head of the National News Agency was sacked. The NNA is the primary source of TONS of news in the country. They don't really do critical reporting, just "this happened here" and "this politician said X" – even if X isn't true.
1. The head of the National News Agency was sacked. The NNA is the primary source of TONS of news in the country. They don't really do critical reporting, just "this happened here" and "this politician said X" – even if X isn't true.
The first kind of reporting – "this happened here" – isn't great when there's a decentralized mass uprising happening. (Did I mention the NNA seems to have correspondents in every fucking village?)
Did the NNA boss, Laure Sleiman, get fired for doing her job? It certainly seems to be the case, especially when you look at how Lebanon's state TV, Tele Liban, is covering the protests. (It's not.)
2. Angry that TL has been broadcasting in its own little world, basically ignoring the protests, a group of artists stormed the station (Al Jadeed cameras in tow) to demand some answers. They didn't get answers, and they didn't get on the air, but they made their point.
MEANWHILE, Hariri was busy rounding up international support for his "reforms", which, even if you agree with them, do next to nothing to address the demands of the protesters.
The message was: he's working, getting things accomplished, and we now have a functional elite. Ta-da.
The message was: he's working, getting things accomplished, and we now have a functional elite. Ta-da.
(Where is Aoun? Good question.)
So have the authorities been successful in showing that Lebanon is back to normal – and therefore, there's no point in going out and protesting?
Not yet, according to the numbers that turned out tonight, but it was honestly a mixed bag today.
Not yet, according to the numbers that turned out tonight, but it was honestly a mixed bag today.
Those in the fight and watching should keep in mind that powerful interests are doing their utmost to cling to power.
Protesters are literally calling for the end of ALL the centers of power. And they're banding together to fight back.
Protesters are literally calling for the end of ALL the centers of power. And they're banding together to fight back.
Hariri, Aoun/Bassil, Berri, Joumblatt and Mikati are ALL ON THE SAME SIDE.
And Nasrallah, the supposed paragon of virtue, has thrown the entire lot of Hezbollah in with this group.
Protesters are up against them all.
And Nasrallah, the supposed paragon of virtue, has thrown the entire lot of Hezbollah in with this group.
Protesters are up against them all.
(The exception is Geagea and the LF, whose ministers resigned and whose supporters are now said to be out protesting and blocking roads.)
On top of this, you've got non-political parts of the elite who don't want the system to crumble:
• Banks won't reopen tomorrow, because they need more stability to ensure there's not a run (which could collapse the system).
• Banks won't reopen tomorrow, because they need more stability to ensure there's not a run (which could collapse the system).
• All the elite groups that were fighting with the government *just a few weeks ago*, like the import cartels for fuel, wheat, and medicine, are suddenly lining up with the government, calling for open roads.
So it's a big group at the top to topple – almost all the political groups plus the financial and business elite.
And they're all working together, more or less.
And they're all working together, more or less.
That's why you see such a concerted push to get people back to school (PSP), open the roads (everyone, including the cartels [side note: this seemingly just happened to be less successful in areas with a lot of LF]), and get people back to work (everyone, everyone, everyone).
Like I said, mixed bag today. The fundamental question: Is the power of the elite greater than the rage of the people? Hard to tell.
