Thread by @RhutaBhayga2

Ok tweeps, you want to know who REALLY can "beat" * in 2020?

Are you ready for this?

Read this statistical research from Adam Berliant, based on LIKELY VOTERS.

(Data sources at the end)

The latest PRRI.org report is freakin' amazing. It’s also really long. I’ve been digging into it for days now, cross-referencing with other data, asking myself: What/who has the best chance to defeat Trump in 2020?
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With the usual caveat that I will vote for any of them (I’d vote for a blue balloon with a face drawn on it), I’m now convinced the nomination needs to go to Elizabeth Warren. The data are screaming at us.

I know this is a lot to absorb, but I really hope you’ll read it.
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1. Many are decided, but not enough. The PRRI report says there’s a very healthy number of voters (37%) who are “vote blue no matter who” people. And this is way more than the 28% who say they’ll vote for Trump no matter what.
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But – and this will be a super influential point as you continue reading – voters over the age of 50 are disproportionately represented in this group (26%). The Democrats who are going to show up to the polls and say they’ll vote for “any of them” skew over 50.
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2. SO much depends on who gets nominated. Amazingly, 29% of all Americans across the political spectrum say who they vote for -- or whether they vote at all –depends on who the Democratic nominee is. You’ll see a ton of data points about this in the report,
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but basically, a large % of these ‘wait and see’ voters won’t vote – AT ALL – if they don’t like the nominee. Note: These voters tend to be liberals (21% firmly identify as Blue vs. 15% Red). So, it’s important to know who these people are, and what they’re ‘waiting’ to see.
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3. “Wait and See” voters tend to be young. While those “wait-n-see” voters are of all ages and in both parties, the number of these voters who are under the age of 30 is disproportionately high: 28% vs. the average of 21%. And there’s A LOT of them.
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You may have heard that Millennials are now as powerful a voting demographic as Boomers. Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z) now make up a clear majority of America’s voting-eligible population. They’re liberals, but they’re also the least bought into #VoteBlueNoMatterWho
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Note: When you look at 5 year age ranges instead of 10, voters aged 25 to 30 are actually the biggest segment of eligible voters, and they are roughly 65% liberal politically. Yet, they had historically low voter turnout in 2016. They waited, they saw, they didn’t vote.
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4. Why it can’t be Biden.
The demographic MOST likely to say “my voting depends on the nominee” is also LEAST supportive of him. This makes Biden the worst choice out of the top 3. For favorability, Sanders ranks 1st among Dems (75%), Biden 2nd (71%), and Warren 3rd (61%).
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Note: While Biden is popular, he also commands the second highest UN-favorable rating behind Marianne Williamson. That’s because of voters under the age of 30 – the people we most need to get to the polls. Only 7% of younger voters support Biden according to Pew research.
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his is the second WORST percentage of ANY demographic about ANY candidate Pew evaluated. (The worst was only 4% of voters over 65yo support Bernie Sanders). This is the same reason, among others, that HRC resulted in historically low voter turnout among voters 18 to 24.
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5. Why it can’t be Sanders.
The problem with Sanders is the same as Biden, in reverse. If ONLY 18 to 30 yos voted, it would be Sanders in a landslide. Young Dems are 30% more likely to vote for Sanders over Warren (and 245% more likely to vote for Sanders over Biden).
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It is pretty tough to argue this away. But, alas, older voters just aren’t on board with Bernie Sanders. Only 7% of voters over 50 support Bernie Sanders – the same dismal number as young voters who support Joe Biden.
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6. So, Warren.
She’s not as favored by young voters as Sanders, but is well liked. She’s the 2nd choice for 75% of voters <30 (Pew). And not as favored among older voters as Biden, but she’s the clear 2nd choice with almost double the favorability of Sanders and the rest.
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And remember, these older voters are the most likely to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho. Warren would capture the majority, if not all of the older voters, and you’re going to have a candidate that’s going to have significant appeal to 3 out of 4 very-much-at-risk young voters.
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I was previously of the mind that, hey, support whoever you want to support. But once there’s a name on the Democratic ticket, get on board. Ok, so I still am of that mind. Joe, whatever. Bernie, fine. Half eaten pickle, I’d vote for that, too.
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But the data are clear. Elizabeth Warren is, right now, the best choice if what you want is to ACTUALLY WIN IN 2020.

If we end up with either Bernie or Biden on the ticket, we’re going to screw this up. Start shouting EW! I know I will be.
/18

Sources

prri.org…/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-…/

people-press.org…/most-democrats-are-excited…/…

pewresearch.org…/the-politics-of-american-gen…/
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