Thread by @jamesmb

Ok, because my @ mentions aren’t messed up enough at the moment, I’m going to say a thing.

Ready?

@joswinson and @IanBlackfordMP’s idea for an early election is a good one.

I will now explain why! 1/

Back in ... 2017, Theresa May (remember her?) had a huge poll lead. It was about 4-5% larger than Johnson’s is now.

She massively misread those polls.

Having 40% in the polls is great provided that the vote is spread equally. However, it isn’t. 2/

The result was always in doubt. Added to that a dismal campaign and you get to another hung Parliament.

This time, you have the Tories way out ahead and Johnson in charge. The second part is important because he is gaffe prone and the party will be in full argument mode. 3/

On top of that, the Brexit Tory vote will be split if Farage’s lot stands - which they will because this has nothing to do with Europe and everything to do with Farage’s ego.

So, non-spread vote, unhappy party, Farage splitting vote. 4/

The new date is important because it is early and so ensures that uni students are where they need to be and can be directed to vote in the most effective place to ensure another handful of non-Tory seats.

5/

Corbyn is a busted flush and will serve to deliver a 30% strategy and little else. He sadly missed the boat on Brexit but, if all they want to do is speak to the ideological left, that’s his look out.

6/

What you end up with is big Labour votes in traditionally Labour seats, big Tory votes in traditionally Tory seats, some changes most likely to Remain Lib Dems in uni seats and another small set of seats in play in the middle. 7/

Now, those seats are moderate swing seats. They aren’t the sorts of places that move on the basis of there being a more extreme option available. That plays nicely into Lib Dem hands. 8/

The final result looks very much like the current one. Hung Parliament, Tories weak, Labour not having made much ground, Lib Dems big but still too small and SNP as the third party. 9/

Why that is fine is this - MPs put the Brexit question to the public because they couldn’t decide themselves. They still can’t but they need you to drive that point home. Eventually, they will decide that there is only one way to break the deadlock - Confirmatory Referendum. 10/

Johnson will go for this because his ego says everyone loves him and he won’t understand the numbers. His ego will be his downfall.

In the meantime, buckle up.

This ain’t over yet.

11/11