1. If Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is in fact dead, it's a good time to reflect on the fact that the ISIS caliphate declaration didn't come out of nowhere. Al Qaeda & its branches have long said they are fighting for a new caliphate. Bin Laden & Zawahiri stated this in the 1990s.
2. Baghdadi & his followers claimed to have achieved this goal in 2014, but the ISIS caliphate crumbled in the face of a US-led coalition. AQ's leaders repeatedly warned this would happen - which is why they've preached patience with respect to declaring emirates & governance.
3. Over the past year-plus, I've reviewed (again) hundreds of al Qaeda messages going back to the 1990s. Resurrecting the caliphate has been a dominant theme. It is even a key part of the contextual narrative in publications such as AQAP's Inspire. ISIS claimed to deliver.
4. Of course, ISIS tried to knock off AQ as the leader of the global jihad. ISIS announced the formation of "provinces" outside of Iraq and Syria in Nov. 2014. These were intended to compete with and subsume AQ groups, including AQ's regional branches.
5. AQ's regional branches were established to lay the groundwork for emirates, which would eventually link up in a new caliphate. AQAP, AQIM/JNIM, AQIS & Shabaab have all said this. That's was stated in Syria, too. ISIS argued these groups were "nullified" by its caliphate.
6. While the ISIS "provinces" grew by adding new recruits and taking market share from AQ's regional branches (also subsumed some others - e.g. Sinai), none of the formal branches wholesale defected to Baghdadi's cause. In fact, AQ's branches remain stronger in some areas.
7. Even though ISIS's territorial caliphate is no more, it fights on as a global terrorist & insurgency organization. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the competition between ISIS & AQ assuming Baghdadi is dead. The rivalry goes beyond Baghdadi as many in ISIS hate AQ.
8. But I would expect a renewed AQ effort to subsume some part of ISIS back into its fold. There are too many variables and unknowns for me to make a prediction, but it is worth keeping a close eye on. AQ has regional branches in place, slowly trying to build their own caliphate.
9. After previous high-profile losses (territory and personnel), ISIS mounted coordinated revenge campaigns across a number of countries and regions, from West Africa to Afghanistan. I'd expect some sort of similar campaign here, but we'll see how intense.
