It makes sense for Baghdadi to choose an unlikely place like Idlib, but I’m frankly surprised he wasn’t in Iraq. Syria was never going to be a good hiding place. Very likely he was moving around & most likely Turkey was involved.
This area of Syria is like an open book for Russia, the Syrian regime, and/or Turkey. Plus it’s high concern for the US, considering al-Qaeda and international terrorism.
Additionally, ISIS cells have been a frequent target of other rival jihadists in that area. That’s an added enemy for him to live there.
It must’ve been a temp domicile.
If I have to guess, he moved there right after that video when he appeared for the 1st time since 2014.
It must’ve been a temp domicile.
If I have to guess, he moved there right after that video when he appeared for the 1st time since 2014.
Was this video of his also shot in Idlib? The confidence of shooting a video that could‘ve been located was always odd.
But if that area was Iraq or NE Syria, it made sense he was going to leave the entire area, with the video & its clues as diversion.
But if that area was Iraq or NE Syria, it made sense he was going to leave the entire area, with the video & its clues as diversion.
The town in which Baghdadi was purportedly targeted has a very interesting history with ISIS.
It was one of the earliest strongholds of the group, specially nearby al-Dana. But look how close it is to Turkey, and a key center for Syrian expat & logistics (map via @michaelh992)
It was one of the earliest strongholds of the group, specially nearby al-Dana. But look how close it is to Turkey, and a key center for Syrian expat & logistics (map via @michaelh992)
This area was also one of the earliest areas that ISIS lost in early 2014, when a foreign-backed rebel push expelled ISIS from the north west, from which it never returned since. That area became strongholds for rival groups, like Nusra.
ISIS has since tried to avoid/learn from the events of 2006, when its founder was killed, and 2010, when its leader and his war minister were killed, to better hide its leaders. So Baghdadi was always a better hider, and lasted the long as a group leader.
(Here I’m just assuming the White House announcement will confirm Baghdadi’s death, which seems highly authoritative and credible this time.)
There is no way in hell that this area was seen as a secure place for ISIS. Anybody who knows anything about that area will know that this terrain is not a good long-term hiding place. No matter what networks ISIS had there.
As we all heard, early reports thought it was Hurras ad-Din. For a reason.
At best, that area would have been considered for “counterintuitive” reasons, that nobody would be looking for Baghdadi there. But counterintuitive only for transit or a temporary domicile.
At best, that area would have been considered for “counterintuitive” reasons, that nobody would be looking for Baghdadi there. But counterintuitive only for transit or a temporary domicile.
ISIS networks in that area were good at moving assets around, for smuggling people from one area to another, and so on. So they probably thought they could move Baghdadi around. But hiding him there?
Most people will think Abbottabad & OBL. This is not it.
Most people will think Abbottabad & OBL. This is not it.
If Baghdadi was there, these are my confident (early) conclusions:
• Iraq was still the best place for him to hide, but he was avoiding a likely focus of intel.
• human intel (verification etc) came from Turkey or its proxies/allies.
• He was on the move, not staying there.
• Iraq was still the best place for him to hide, but he was avoiding a likely focus of intel.
• human intel (verification etc) came from Turkey or its proxies/allies.
• He was on the move, not staying there.
Also:
• Baghdadi would have blown himself up if he was about to be attacked or captured. (Unless he couldn’t for some reason.)
• Needless to say, under no circumstances would al-Qaeda or other jihadists help ISIS hide Baghdadi. And ISIS would never let them.
• Baghdadi would have blown himself up if he was about to be attacked or captured. (Unless he couldn’t for some reason.)
• Needless to say, under no circumstances would al-Qaeda or other jihadists help ISIS hide Baghdadi. And ISIS would never let them.
IMPORTANT report here:
@wissamm88 quotes a Nusra/HTS leader as confirming Baghdadi & a deputy from Tal Afar were killed in a US raid.
Critically, the leader claims that HTS had been aware of Baghdadi presence & was searching for him.
@wissamm88 quotes a Nusra/HTS leader as confirming Baghdadi & a deputy from Tal Afar were killed in a US raid.
Critically, the leader claims that HTS had been aware of Baghdadi presence & was searching for him.
Within Nusra/HTS, one taskforce in charge (even obsessed) with ISIS and its cells in that area is the faction commanded by Abu Maria al-Qahtani.
Al-Qahtani is also Iraqi.
A few months ago, he reportedly gave refuge to a fellow Juburi from ISIS there. He has contacts/channels.
Al-Qahtani is also Iraqi.
A few months ago, he reportedly gave refuge to a fellow Juburi from ISIS there. He has contacts/channels.
Here is the report from a month ago about Abu Maria al-Qahtani hosting former ISIS fighters (from Iraq) who defected after the final battle against ISIS in Baghouz. He gave “aman” (pledge of safety) to those who wanted to desert ISIS. jesrpress.com/2019/09/17/%d8… from @Jesrpress1
Any Maria al-Qahtani operates near Baghdadi’s reported site.
One of several ISIS members who accepted his offer was a relative of his known as Abu Abdallatif al-Juburi, an ex-aide to Baghdadi.
This report, from last month, adds intrigue to today’s news: jesrpress.com/2019/09/17/%d8…
One of several ISIS members who accepted his offer was a relative of his known as Abu Abdallatif al-Juburi, an ex-aide to Baghdadi.
This report, from last month, adds intrigue to today’s news: jesrpress.com/2019/09/17/%d8…
This is very interesting:
@MazloumAbdi, the commander of the US-backed/abandoned SDF, suggests the operation was a result of joint intelligence effort between the organization & the US.
See next tweet..
@MazloumAbdi, the commander of the US-backed/abandoned SDF, suggests the operation was a result of joint intelligence effort between the organization & the US.
See next tweet..
The area where Baghdadi was reportedly targeted is very very far from the SDF area or its field of operation, but this detail is another indicator that Baghdadi had been somewhere else *just before* he was targeted in the area shown here. That’d suggest he had just arrived there.
The Kurdish organization SDF and sources citing the jihadist group HTS both suggest the two Syrian factions had a role in targeting Baghdadi. Turkey is likely involved (too).
That’d be the Syrian conflict’s biggest irony.
That’d be the Syrian conflict’s biggest irony.
This is true, the Kurdish group would have eyes and ears around that area. But it’s (more) likely that Baghdadi’s trail was being followed as he moved from Iraq to Syria to northern Syria.
So now it appears that Baghdadi was hosted by a leader known (but not truly) as Hurras al-Din (al-Qaeda loyalist) leader.
Abu Muhammed al-Halabi. He appears to have been a supporter & longstanding ISIS loyalist. He was killed defending Baghdadi:
Abu Muhammed al-Halabi. He appears to have been a supporter & longstanding ISIS loyalist. He was killed defending Baghdadi:
I would throw out of the window any reports that Hurras al-Din helped Baghdadi hide. Not even possible.
This host of Baghdadi was an active supporter of ISIS online until he excused himself to go off the grid months ago “for emergency reasons” (possibly after Baghdadi’s video).
This host of Baghdadi was an active supporter of ISIS online until he excused himself to go off the grid months ago “for emergency reasons” (possibly after Baghdadi’s video).
Turkey confirms it had a role in the US operation that reportedly targeted Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
Journalists should track this shepherd with an amazing story to tell:
The sheep herder, living nearby, says the house was recently owned by an Aleppo IDP, Abu Mohammed Salamah. US & Arab troops at 11pm. Soldiers handed him 3 kids & a light (!) for safety syria.tv/%D9%85%D9%82%D…
The sheep herder, living nearby, says the house was recently owned by an Aleppo IDP, Abu Mohammed Salamah. US & Arab troops at 11pm. Soldiers handed him 3 kids & a light (!) for safety syria.tv/%D9%85%D9%82%D…
If #Baghdadi was indeed staying in Idlib, that’s a really major blunder. Evasive top al-Qaeda operatives, who survived multiple conflicts, were killed in that same area soon after they landed in Syria. I never expected he would live there, even knowing their robust networks there
We knew Syria & Iraq would be the only places for his stay.
Syria was a 2nd option, specifically in the Badia near Homs to central Hama. (Easy route to the site)
All indications point to him using ISIS underground & smuggling cells to move from one area to another. Not to stay.
Syria was a 2nd option, specifically in the Badia near Homs to central Hama. (Easy route to the site)
All indications point to him using ISIS underground & smuggling cells to move from one area to another. Not to stay.
Will ISIS survive Baghdadi’s killing? The answer is an obvious yes, but it’s also a mix of things:
Too many will be reinvigorated by his death, become more determined to win & take revenge.
A large number will be demotivated but won’t desert or leave.
A minority = vulnerable
Too many will be reinvigorated by his death, become more determined to win & take revenge.
A large number will be demotivated but won’t desert or leave.
A minority = vulnerable
The fate of Idlib & Baghdadi are interconnected, in a cyclical way:
1. it’s a perfect opportunity for Russia & Damascus to get an international buy-in for the final showdown with the rebels
2. That showdown will open the door for ISIS rivals to attract to its vulnerable members
1. it’s a perfect opportunity for Russia & Damascus to get an international buy-in for the final showdown with the rebels
2. That showdown will open the door for ISIS rivals to attract to its vulnerable members
Now, that would make perfect sense (considering the above, that Baghdadi wasn’t actually staying there, but en route to some other place.)
The SDF is now speaking about a specific and extensive role they played, not just providing tips but coordinating closely with the US.
If this is true, and it seems so, then Trump’s abandonment was even more treacherous.
If this is true, and it seems so, then Trump’s abandonment was even more treacherous.
In some ways, Baghdadi’s death could be more significant than that of bin Laden in 2011. OBL killing was of course more directly important for the US, but his search took too long, a decade after 9/11. Baghdadi’s death is after caliphate end & could thus be more consequential.
That ISIS could survive his death isn’t as straightforward as it widely seems. It could change a lot of things. We just know how the group *could* survive it long term. That’a it, long term. Otherwise it can be hugely disruptive for the group at this critical phase of existence.
So, in other words, operationally the killing of the leader of the most savage jihadist organization in history could be a lot more consequential than the killing of a terrorist leader far away from his followers & fat detached from their day-to-day reality. We can celebrate big.
Also, ISIS is demonstrating its inability to seize a series of openings and events in critical areas in Iraq and Syria. At this point, it is not as we have been reading and suspecting. It’s slow at grabbing opportunities & has been failing, with numerous major blunders.
So, indeed many countries were involved in helping the US target Baghdadi. Russia, Syria, Iraq, and the Kurds helped in a “certain way.”
That’s it for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the extremist who led the group for 9 years. He brought the Islamic State if Iraq (al-Qaeda in Iraq) from the ashes, expanded it to Syria in 2011 & formed a caliphate in 2014 that lasted for 5 years. To his followers, that’ll be his legacy.
And Turkey, of course.
The list and recent events suggest the work was mostly done by Syria, Russia and Turkey.
Iraq & SDF probably verified ID/DNA & provided early tips about his movement.
Expect an offensive in Idlib soon, a huge support for Assad.
The list and recent events suggest the work was mostly done by Syria, Russia and Turkey.
Iraq & SDF probably verified ID/DNA & provided early tips about his movement.
Expect an offensive in Idlib soon, a huge support for Assad.
That’s it for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the extremist who led his jihadist group for 9 years. He brought the Islamic State of Iraq (al-Qaeda in Iraq) from the ashes, expanded it to Syria in 2011 & formed a caliphate in 2014 that lasted for 5 years. To his followers, that’s his legacy
Eyes should be on ISIS affiliates beyond Iraq & Syria. What will happen to those affiliates? They *might* be less loyal to a new leader? Its core operatives in Iraq & Syria have leaders who’ll keep them organized & active. It’ll take time to fully recover from Baghdadi’s death.
The possibilities are numerous, but my forecast for what’ll happen:
• Reinvigorated, not demoralized, ISIS in Iraq & Syria.
• A new leader won’t assume the same role.
• ISIS will maintain its foreign affiliates largely intact.
• ISIS will become even more local-focused.
• Reinvigorated, not demoralized, ISIS in Iraq & Syria.
• A new leader won’t assume the same role.
• ISIS will maintain its foreign affiliates largely intact.
• ISIS will become even more local-focused.
If there is footage of Baghdadi freaking out, American officials will be foolish to sit on it. Release it sooner than later. That’ll be huge, ISIS often pointed out how footage of al-Zarqawi was meant to demoralize his followers (indirectly suggesting it could have.)
This is interesting — the body of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was left behind, the US took a sample for tests. A body is now with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, but it’s still unclear if that’s al-Baghdadi’s, since he detonated himself.
arabi21.com/story/1218389/…
arabi21.com/story/1218389/…
Definitely a day of celebration for the thousands of ordinary people in Iraq & Syria bereaved by the savages of ISIS. Many families thought they’d never get justice. May ISIS & its brethern in Nusra & al-Qaeda never return to brutalize or help oppressors:
Hmm
The SDF’s commander now says another operation near Jarablus, in the Turkish-controlled Euphrates Shield zone, targeted the spokesman of ISIS Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir. He says the operation was in coordination between his group and the US.
The SDF’s commander now says another operation near Jarablus, in the Turkish-controlled Euphrates Shield zone, targeted the spokesman of ISIS Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir. He says the operation was in coordination between his group and the US.
This news of another operation targeting the 2nd most visible/public figure within ISIS seems to be v credible. It makes sense that his location was known to whoever was with Baghdadi.
A similar pattern of one killing leading to another played out in 2016
A similar pattern of one killing leading to another played out in 2016
It’ll be a heavy hit for ISIS if its spkmesman was also killed. One imagines they would‘ve assigned him to deliver the news to followers, with news about a new leader. They’ll have to come up with a new spokesman and a new leader. Likely an Arab spokesman & an Iraqi leader.
To me, the killing of the spokesman on the same day makes it even more disruptive for ISIS, which has no public face now. It’ll be tough to pull it off quickly like this. Also, it’s confirm what we’ve been saying for years, that the Turkish zone is a safe zone for ISIS + al-Qaeda
Both operated in areas supposedly controlled by Turkey. I said it before, those areas are the best hope for ISIS to revive itself, both logistically & in terms of manpower. It’s probably akin to the situation post-Surge in Iraq. Same for al-Qaeda. Trump allowed Turkey to invade.
Yes, this makes a lot of sense. That he was moving to that area to hide, and the area where he was killed made no sense as a hiding place.
