, 13 tweets, 5 min read
OK, #jobsday charts thread, which I'll add to as reporting/writing allows. For my main takeaways, see my story: nytimes.com/2019/11/01/bus…
Big picture: This was a solid report! Even accounting for the strike, pace of growth has slowed a bit. But that was always to be expected, and upward revisions helped.
One big question in the job market right now is whether trouble in manufacturing is spreading to the service sector. So far, the answer is a pretty clear "no."
Yesterday, I tweeted that we shouldn't expect much effect from the roll-off of temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. That was based on what @uscensusbureau told me. But as it turns out, there *was* a meaningful effect (-17k jobs).
@uscensusbureau The impact of the G.M. strike is very clear in manufacturing jobs, which would have been slightly positive without the work stoppage. But it's also clear that manufacturing hiring has slowed sharply this year.
On the other hand: Signs of life in retail! Post-revision, two-straight months of growth after seven months of cuts.
And another strong month for leisure/hospitality. The consumer is really carrying the economy right now.
One note of caution for consumers: Wage growth has stalled, and even slowed. Note the divergence between wages for all workers and for production & nonsupervisory.
Slowing job growth + flat wage growth + flat (to falling) hours worked = slower growth in total earnings (which matters for consumer spending).
OTOH, total earnings growth of 4% isn't bad (basically back to pre-TCJA levels).
Some really strong numbers in the household survey. Adjusting for aging population, the employment rate is not just above prerecession levels, it's approaching its 2000-era peak. That's a big deal.
Demographically-adjusted participation rate has likewise gained a lot of ground, though still below 1999-2000.
And the *full-time* employment rate for prime age (25-54) workers saw a big jump (enough that I wonder about a data quirk, although upward trend is clear regardless).
If you read through the one-off effects (GM, census), what jumps out is how steady job growth has been for the past several months. Definitely slower than last year, but no sign of an ongoing deceleration.
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