Is it still the economy, stupid? Views of the economy have become so hardened along partisan lines that the economy may not play as big a role in the 2020 election as it has in the past.
nytimes.com/2019/10/29/bus…
nytimes.com/2019/10/29/bus…
Consumer confidence among Republicans and Democrats has barely budged in response to news about the economy. Confidence is more correlated with partisanship than with education, income and employment status.
Caveats: The economy is a legitimately mixed picture right now (low unemployment but slowing growth, etc.). Hard to say what would happen in an outright recession.
And independents could be key in the election and (by definition) don't have same partisan lens.
And independents could be key in the election and (by definition) don't have same partisan lens.
Still, as @AmberWichowsky told me, "the predictive power of the economy [in elections] is weakening as polarization increases."
I also wonder what it means for the reliability of confidence measures as an economic indicator.
I also wonder what it means for the reliability of confidence measures as an economic indicator.
More discussion here: nytimes.com/2019/10/29/bus…
Full data/crosstabs from @SurveyMonkey here: surveymonkey.com/curiosity/nyt-…
Full data/crosstabs from @SurveyMonkey here: surveymonkey.com/curiosity/nyt-…
