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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
One of the most frustrating things about the Brexit debate is people will point to small true things to justify a monster decision, eg one example of EU corruption. Nobody's claiming the EU's perfect. But it's like advocating the death penalty for someone who scratched your car.
"The EU waste millions moving parliament twice a year. So we must inflict £70 billion of economic damage on ourselves, destroy our manufacturing sector, and ruin the life chances of young people."

or even "Donald Tusk was rude, so..."

What's missing is any sense of proportion!
It's all post hoc justification: The big thing I voted for turned out to be a lie, but here's a tiny truth I can lash myself to so as to "justify" my original decision.
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Here's why tactical voting is so confusing and so difficult:
1. It needs to include Tory voters AND Labour voters.
2. "Stop the Tories" is not the same as "Stop Brexit".
3. Many Labour supporters want to focus tactics on STT.
4. Everyone else wants to focus tactics on SB.
Remember: even Labour Leave voters want to "Stop the Tories". But they don't want to "Stop Brexit". That's why STT isn't the same as SB.

This distinction may seem like splitting hairs, but it's critical to understanding the problem.
- For many Labour supporters (Leave & Remain) the very worst future is another 5 years of Tory rule.
- For most supporters of other parties, the very worst future is Brexit. But since we're being brutally honest, a majority Corbyn government doesn't look too hot to them either.
Read 8 tweets
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
All of these scenarios *could in theory* produce a Government:

Scenario 1: Labour 330 MPs

Scenario 2: Labour 280 MPs, SNP 50 MPs

Scenario 3: Labour 280 MPs, LD 50 MPs

Scenario 4: Labour 230 MPs, SNP 50 MPs, LD 50 MPs

(You can adjust the numbers above based on your optimism.)
The main point is that you don't need Labour to have anything even close to a majority for the Tories to end up out of power. You just need the sum total of MPs from all parties that *might at a pinch be willing to work together* to add up to a majority.
Of course, it only works if:
A) The numbers are there overall, in one guise or another
B) Neither the SNP nor the LD prop up the Tories instead (I really don't see why they would. A second coalition would finish the LD - they learned that lesson. And the SNP have zero reason to.)
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Here's the clip of Rebecca Long-Bailey confirming that Labour would only make up its mind on backing Leave or Remain in a second referendum *after* renegotiating Brexit.

In other words we have zero clarity on THE issue of the election! Useless.
Fantastic ammunition for the LibDems, but not what we need to cobble together a Remain Alliance. Imagine you vote for Labour. They get in, then a few months later they interpret your vote as a mandate for them to campaign for Leave in a second referendum. How angry would you be?
Here's the real problem: if the Labour manifesto reflects the same ambiguity when it's published in a couple of weeks, there will be no hiding it: a strategic vote for them could *at their whim* be parlayed into a Leave referendum stance. Let's see what the document says!
Read 6 tweets

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Jonathan Mills
@Muinchille
One of the most striking features of the UK's interaction with Ireland over #Brexit* has been the constant reappearance of very resilient British ideas of Ireland which appear to be datable to the 1950s, 60s and 70s.

*not just Brexit either.
There is a striking coincidence here; the 50s and 60s are the last period in which Ireland experienced near catastrophic levels of emigration to England. Is it possible that the two are connected? It seems likely. How would that work?
There are a couple of things going on here in both British and Irish culture. First the Irish one; it is no easy thing to emigrate. Irish family ties are very strong, and to abandon them all to live abroad is hard. It requires a very strong justification to be constructed.
Read 12 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders pretty convinced they will soon by faced with Boris Johnson as new UK PM and opinion is split /1
Talk to different EU diplomats and politicians from different EU countries and you’ll get a number of different opinions as to how #Brexit will play out in the autumn /2
Some see BJ as one of the key architects of the Leave vote and therefore one of the few UK politicians able to sell a compromise deal with the EU to Parliament /3
Read 9 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU emergency #brexit summit 10 April will start 6pm in Brussels. The PM will be invited to ‘engage’ with the 27 EU leaders +inform them of her plans/requests. She’ll then like last time be asked to leave the room while the 27 try to come to unified position required by EU law /1
Leaders are divided. No one likes idea of long #brexit delay - if PM asks for it - and it only takes one country (France in frontline) to say no - as EU decision must be unanimous BUT /2
If the UK does as EU had requested and agrees to holding European parliamentary elections as a condition for being granted a longer #Brexit delay then it’s hard to imagine EU saying no. Even if the PM only presents a vague plan of what intends to do during longer extension /3
Read 9 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

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