Thread by @Nate_Cohn

Nonvoters do not seem poised to save the Democrats in the six key battleground states, based on an analysis of more than 600 nonvoters in our Times/Siena polls.
Despite their demographics, they are not much likelier to back Democrats than voters
nytimes.com/2019/11/07/ups…

The results are consistent with an analysis of national polling of unregistered voters and Times/Siena '18 data over the summer
nytimes.com/2019/07/15/ups…

Our results do offer some good news for Democrats among nonvoting Hispanic voters, who back the Democratic candidates by huge margins and could propel the party forward in Arizona or perhaps even Texas
But outside of Arizona, Democrats are deadlocked with nonvoters

Black nonvoters, in contrast, are a somewhat startling challenge for Democrats.
Biden, for ex, only leads among black nonvoters by a 59-19 margin, even has he leads among black voters, 89-6

Nonvoting Democrats do not look vastly more progressive than those who stay home, either. If anything, they seem more moderate--especially on cultural issues.
That said, Sanders has the best support and ratings with this group and Warren is worst.

And the president's nonvoters are just as likely as Democratic nonvoters to say they'll turn out in 2020, unlike our polling from 2018 and suggesting that the president would remain competitive in a high turnout election

Of course, none this accounts for another group of voters: people who aren't registered at all.
Millions of newly eligible voters will register over the next year.
But over all, our previous analysis of these voters shows the same pattern.

Last summer, we compiled thousands of nonregistrants from national surveys. The same patterns held here, with Democrats excelling among nonvoting Latino voters but struggling to match their success among unregistered young or black voters

I meant: Nonvoting Democrats do not look vastly more progressive than those who vote*, either