We went in-depth on the persuadable voters in our surveys, who said they were really open to voting for either Trump or the Democrat.
They weren't what I expected
nytimes.com/2019/11/05/ups…
They weren't what I expected
nytimes.com/2019/11/05/ups…
We also, probably wisely, rejected two semi-serious proposed nicknames for two kinds of swing voters: the HBO conservatives and the MMA (or WWE) populists
The latter is a real revelation to me: young, men, often nonwhite, kind of the Trump show, doesn't understand or even resents elite PC culture, does not like Warren, but is in no way conservative on the issues and still wants big change
The former--affluent moderate-types who don't like Trump, but don't hate his policies and really aren't down with the left--seem like no surprise
kind of *into the Trump show
A major surprise, for me, was the relative absence of older, white working class voters of the sort who might have gone Obama-->Trump-->Dem. They seem inclined to stick with the president, at least in our poll
I should note that this strikes me as a difference between our poll and recent national surveys showing double digit leads for Democrats. So I would hold out the possibility that more of these voters are in play than we've found here, though in the end I'd guess they return Trump
We also find relatively few women among the undecided, which I'd say defies the typical conventional wisdom. This could be the flip side of the white working class phenomenon: they made their swing in '16, leaving men as an outsized share of the undecided
