Thread by @Abdimaleik

Puntland has since the last elections experienced hot political climate (sometimes over hyped).

Thread on the inflitration attempts of N & N into PL, working relationships of Pres. Deni, VP Karaash, Speaker Abdihakim (ex), Bosaso issue & the influence of "Aaraan Jaan". 1/21

For the benefit of all & to my friends who don't speak Somali/not familiar with common terms , check this simple glossary:

FGS- Federal Gov't of Somalia
PL- Puntland
VP- Vice President
Nabad & Nolol - Campaign slogan of Pres. Farmaajo & a name tag for the current govt. 2/21

There were clashes with skirmishes last night in Garowe b/w Puntland security forces & guards at the parliament HQs. Death toll, 3.

The guards were pro the ousted Speaker. Deployed many more (allegedly. The rival forces were sent from the PL state house. 3/21

Despite the Speaker sending the members of the parliament to a 3 days leave, the Dep. Speaker of PL Parliament received a motion against the Speaker earlier today.

44 (+) members have signed the motion accusing the speaker of violating the constitution of Puntland. 4/21

Around 10:30 AM, PL MPs convened a sitting & voted out Abdihakim as the Speaker of the parliament.

With the attendance of 53 MPs, 49 voted in favour of the motion, 4 abstained, reports. 5/21

Connecting the dots;

Abdihakim is a go getter & a tough guy. Run for the speaker post thrice.

Allegedly, a close ally of N & N. He is also very close to Gen. Asad Diyano & Abdi Jamaal (MP in the PL parliament).

Both Asad & Abdi Jamaal are fierce opponents of Deni. 6/21

Abdihakim has got some grievances too. Most of them legit. He argues that the position of the Speaker which is traditionally reserved for his clan should be empowered.

He was also planning to push for some changes in the PL constitution with regards to that clause. 7/21

Abdihakim worked for Golis Telecom Company. A former member of Al - Itihaad group.

Alias "Dhoobo Daareed". A cool & composed guy, eloquent. Now a member of Al- Ictisam group (as do Deni).

Would go to history as the Speaker who served the shortest stint in PL. 8/21

Remember this reached the climax?

Awil, an MP perceived to be pro Speaker & FGS, asked Pres. Deni a question about his performance, with some shocking allegations.

Deni responded fiercely, left the sitting in protest. Not generally a good move, says alot about the heat. 9/21

Deni through the PL prosecutor asked the parliament to strip the MP Awil off his immunity in order to charge him for criminal charges.

Members of the parliament objected the move & luckily the MP sailed off.

The plan to teach Abdihakim a lesson kept getting momentum. 10/21

Not forgetting the recent disagreements between Said Deni & VP Ahmed Karaash.

Karaash cited lack of consultations on the part of Deni on govt undertakings like appointments of key committees. 11/21

Karaash is also perceived to be a close ally of the FGS.

There were instances where Deni & the VP organized motions against each other. Both motions didn't see the light of the day.

Friction between the 2 seems to have colled off now. Can escalate any time.12/21

Bososo grievances

Bosaso elders & business community largely discontented with the Deni admin. Same applies to the previous admin.

Port issues, resource sharing key grievances. 13/21

Who are the Aaran Jaan?

An interest group with a considerable political influence. Supported Deni during the last elections. Most of them businessmen & politicians.

Said to be founded during the era of Pres. Cade Muse. 14/21

Sort of clan based, deemed by a large members of the public that they areb seeking personal interest over the interests of Puntland and Somalia.

Their focal man in Mogadishu is MP Ali Yusuf Ali Hosh. A close friend to PM Kheyre, sources. 15/21

Aaran Jaan have a strong influence over Said Deni.

Mohamed Farole who is the son of Sen. Abdirahman Farole is a senior member.

Other key members include:
1. Hassan Shire Abgaal- PL finance minister
4. Mohamud Shiddo, Businessman and Head of Aaran Jaan. 16/21

What is good for the goose is good for the gander !

The law of precendent applies in politics. More so the anology of whataboutism works in #Somalia.

Remember how @TheVillaSomalia treated Prof. Jawari?

Well, Deni seems to have learnt the same tricks. 17/21

Way forward:

1. Puntland should put her house in order. Address grievances. Amicable solutions not out of reach. They are plenty at her disposal.

2. Any voilent moves should be avoided. Hasty decisions come along with painful consequences. 18/21

3. Pres. Deni should tone down his anger. It's clear he is under constant attempts of sabotage from the FGS but he should act with moderation.

4. FGS should balance & evaluate it's moves. The unity/security of PL not worth betting on. Gains made shouldn't be undermined. 19/21

5. Puntland also needs to institutionalise its democracy and transition to a full democracy.

Quite disgusting that even after 20 years, the script is the same and clan trajectory literally runs the systems. 20/21

6. With just one year only shy of the elections, there is a deep political division. The writing is on the wall.

Prudent that FGS owns up her share of the mess, show leadership &embark on an inclusive political process that can work best at this tough period. 21/21