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My two cents on #Galmudug elections.
1. Potential candidates & their backgrounds,
2. Main stakeholders
3. Galmudug state key in-house dynamics
4. What might be the end product. Thread. 1/17
1. Potential candidates & their backgrounds,
2. Main stakeholders
3. Galmudug state key in-house dynamics
4. What might be the end product. Thread. 1/17
Galmudug is an important region, politically. A large number of Somalia's political elite happen to hail from this region.
A complicated region; cosmopolitan in nature with regards to clan diversity.
Security wise, reliable with the exception of a few districts. 2/17
A complicated region; cosmopolitan in nature with regards to clan diversity.
Security wise, reliable with the exception of a few districts. 2/17
The incumbent (Xaaf) faced a lot of challenges partly because of his miscalculated political decisions and partly because of the region's complexity & diversity.
He is way less relevant now. Handed over his role(s) to FGS. 3/17
He is way less relevant now. Handed over his role(s) to FGS. 3/17
Main stakeholders in the upcoming election:
1. FGS
2. Opposition groups (UPD, Wadajir)
3. ASWJ ( Sufi)- though with little relevance now
4. Pressure groups with diverse interests (Business people etc). 4/16
1. FGS
2. Opposition groups (UPD, Wadajir)
3. ASWJ ( Sufi)- though with little relevance now
4. Pressure groups with diverse interests (Business people etc). 4/16
The state is currently warming up for an election. Dates of the election not set but the atmosphere already smells and tastes politics.
Selection of the regional parliament being the most important issue to watch; the game starts with the selection of the MPs. 5/17
Selection of the regional parliament being the most important issue to watch; the game starts with the selection of the MPs. 5/17
Official Candidates:
1. Abdurahman Odowa;
- Former Minister
- Spearheaded the establishment of Galmudug in 2015.
- Relatively compatible with most of the locals (clans)
- Officially backed by UPD
Weak spot: His association with the now "defunct" Damjadid. 6/17
1. Abdurahman Odowa;
- Former Minister
- Spearheaded the establishment of Galmudug in 2015.
- Relatively compatible with most of the locals (clans)
- Officially backed by UPD
Weak spot: His association with the now "defunct" Damjadid. 6/17
2. Ahmed Abdi Kariye (Qoorqoor)
- Current role: State Minister for Public works
- An ally of the PM; most probably with solid backing from the current govt + her allies
- A fence mender tasked with selling N & N agenda in the region (tough assignment) 7/17
- Current role: State Minister for Public works
- An ally of the PM; most probably with solid backing from the current govt + her allies
- A fence mender tasked with selling N & N agenda in the region (tough assignment) 7/17
3. Kamal Hassan Dahir (Gutale)
- The youngest candidate
- Former Chief of Staff, Villa Somalia
- Founding member, Wadajir party
- Believed to be a lone runner(independent)
- Might stand a better chance to sail off when the two bulls clash 8/17
- The youngest candidate
- Former Chief of Staff, Villa Somalia
- Founding member, Wadajir party
- Believed to be a lone runner(independent)
- Might stand a better chance to sail off when the two bulls clash 8/17
4. Abdi Abdullahi Ahmed (Abdi Dheere)
A new comer in the political scene. Word has it that he has close relations with Pres. Farmajo & his confidants (an assertion that suggests a crack in the house of N&N).
Other sources citing that he is Plan B for Nabad & Nolol. 9/17
A new comer in the political scene. Word has it that he has close relations with Pres. Farmajo & his confidants (an assertion that suggests a crack in the house of N&N).
Other sources citing that he is Plan B for Nabad & Nolol. 9/17
Power sharing dynamics & political manifestations:
- 11 clans constitute the power sharing formula of Galmudug.
- 2 are traditionally (at least for now) pro govt. The Marehan & Murusade (Farmajo/Khayre backyard.)
That they will vote as a whole bloc is an assumption. 10/17
- 11 clans constitute the power sharing formula of Galmudug.
- 2 are traditionally (at least for now) pro govt. The Marehan & Murusade (Farmajo/Khayre backyard.)
That they will vote as a whole bloc is an assumption. 10/17
The Habargidir are largely pro opposition.
They are the largest clan (30+ regional MPs) and stand a high chance to secure the presidency again for the 3rd consecutive time.
Some sections of the Habargidir might collaborate with the govt but that might be a small %. 11/17
They are the largest clan (30+ regional MPs) and stand a high chance to secure the presidency again for the 3rd consecutive time.
Some sections of the Habargidir might collaborate with the govt but that might be a small %. 11/17
Other clans include:
1. The Waceysle who are also deemed to be pro opposition.
2. The Duduble who are traditionally in the same boat with the Habargidir
3. Dir, Shekhal, Madhiban and Tumal clans who can be termed as swing votes. 12/17
1. The Waceysle who are also deemed to be pro opposition.
2. The Duduble who are traditionally in the same boat with the Habargidir
3. Dir, Shekhal, Madhiban and Tumal clans who can be termed as swing votes. 12/17
Odowa, Qoorqoor and Gutale are the guys to watch.
Note that all the 3 hail not only from the Habargidir clan but also from the same sub clan (The Saleban).
The so called "Gentlemen agreement" in full scale. 13/17
Note that all the 3 hail not only from the Habargidir clan but also from the same sub clan (The Saleban).
The so called "Gentlemen agreement" in full scale. 13/17
The power sharing formula of the 3 most important positions might also take a paradigm shift.
President slot primarily reserved for the Habargidir clan.
Marehan, Murusade and Waceysle clans to compete for 2 positions: Deputy President and Speaker. 14/17
President slot primarily reserved for the Habargidir clan.
Marehan, Murusade and Waceysle clans to compete for 2 positions: Deputy President and Speaker. 14/17
FGS efforts in the Galmudug reconciliation initially very promising.
Ministry of Interior to set the election guidelines with full mandate. Constitutionally, such is reseved for the Member states.
Already some groups are raising eye brows & developing reservations. 15/17
Ministry of Interior to set the election guidelines with full mandate. Constitutionally, such is reseved for the Member states.
Already some groups are raising eye brows & developing reservations. 15/17
What might transpire?
Tough to predict, quite early to do a realistic prediction.
Key factors that determines who might win:
Political wheeling & dealing, swing votes, transparency of the process and the resources (skilled man power & cash). 16/17
Tough to predict, quite early to do a realistic prediction.
Key factors that determines who might win:
Political wheeling & dealing, swing votes, transparency of the process and the resources (skilled man power & cash). 16/17
Galmudug elections considered to be a litmus test and a prediction of 2021 elections trajectory.
Both the govt and the opposition groups are eager to show their fist and deploy their manpower & cash to the region in the eve of elections. This is the place to watch. 17/17
Both the govt and the opposition groups are eager to show their fist and deploy their manpower & cash to the region in the eve of elections. This is the place to watch. 17/17
