For those who couldn't make it to Stratford on Friday night, but would like to hear my talk on Johnson's "Great New Brexit Deal"... here is the video produced by @stratford4eu of the whole event:
And here are a few key points: 1) vast majority of Withdrawal Agreement per se = identical to Theresa May's from November 2018. Only substantive change concerns Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland, ie replacement of Theresa May’s “backstop” with Boris Johnson alternative...
2) New Protocol basically treats Northern Ireland de facto as part of EU Customs Union and relevant parts of EU Single Market. Similar to original EU backstop proposal but with some important differences too. Involved compromises all round though not necessarily for the better...
3) On one side: EU will allow its own external frontier to be policed by a third country (albeit subject to EU supervision and certain powers for Commission and Court of Justice etc). With UK accused of failing to combat widespread VAT fraud, it's not exactly a promising start...
4) On other side: there will be a customs and regulatory border between NI&GB. So avoiding hard border in Ireland comes at cost of creating / reinforcing certain borders within UK itself. Johnson etc can lie about that all they like, but it's in black and white in his Protocol...
5) Yet NI formally remains part of UK customs territory = subject to 2 distinct customs regimes simultaneously. Very similar to previous UK proposals described as untested, speculative, bureaucratic & uncompetitive. And key point: that Johnson himself resigned over in July '18...
6) Final point on Protocol: hard to see this deal as sustainable in long term, yet it is now to be treated as permanent arrangement - unless NI votes either for reunification with Republic or for imposing hard border on itself... Johnson really has dumped on NI from great height!
7) Otherwise, only change in Johnson's "Great New Deal" = revisions to Political Declaration, eg new references to Free Trade Agreement; downgraded customs relationship; deletion of UK willingness to align with EU rules on goods; redrafting of “level playing field” commitments...
8) On the one hand, need to remember that Political Declaration is not legally binding; negotiations will only start after withdrawal; they may take considerable time; they might produce a very different future relationship; or might end up producing little / nothing at all...
9) On the other hand, whole package is very revealing about Tory plans. First: now want much more distant economic relationship with EU than even that proposed by Theresa May: for many businesses etc Tory “negotiated Brexit” ultimately indistinguishable from simple “no deal”...
10) Secondly, no more binding UK commitments even to maintain (let alone improve) current employment / environmental etc standards: Hard Right are clearing away all remaining obstacles to their [vile] Trumpian agenda of launching [deregulatory] socio-economic revolution in UK...
11) Thirdly, confirms obsessive Tory focus on “independent trade policy”... What a deluded fantasy! Idea that UK acting alone could match (let alone improve) on trade terms (as compared to membership of global trading power like EU) would be laughable if not so dangerous...
12) But above all: transition ends in December 2020 & Gov has ruled out requesting extension whatever the circumstances. So Johnson’s “Great New Deal” actually means that “no deal” the Hard Right had hoped for on 31 October 2019 = merely being postponed until 31 December 2020?
13) So: no surprise Johnson keen to call election rather than submit "Great New Deal" to proper parliamentary scrutiny! His deal is a sham, far worse even than May's version. But HoC majority would let him pass it without care for the consequences. So why give him that majority?
