When supporters of Boris Johnson say: he achieved what so many claimed was impossible: he got EU to renegotiate #Brexit deal therefore he can also get an EU trade deal done by December next year although many say unlikely .. It’s important to remember the red line PM crossed.. /1
He didn’t get the new Brexit deal by bullying/impressing/charming the EU. He got it by agreeing to protect their single market on island of Ireland after Brexit by putting a customs border down the Irish Sea. Allowing a ‘division’ between NIreland + GB he’d pledged never to do /2
Of course the EU also engaged with Boris Johnson because they believed that he - as a political figure - had a better chance of selling a deal back home to MPs than Theresa May ever had - BUT have a chat in EU circles .. /3
And you’ll hear the only way Johnson really has chance of getting bare bones FTA with EU done and dusted by Christmas next year is if he crosses his own red lines again and gives in to EU concerns ie. level playing field regulations and allowing EU fishing rights in UK waters /4
Getting it done seemed of more importance to Johnson with the #Brexit deal than keeping his word about the union and avoiding a dividing line down the Irish Sea. How might it be with an EU trade deal? Would he give up ‘control’ and ‘sovereignty’ for a quick deal by December? /5
Remember if he signs up to ongoing alignment with EU environmental, labour, state aid competition rules etc after Brexit, then where’s the national sovereignty he promised voters? And if he doesn’t sign on the dotted line, then negotiations with the EU are bound to take longer /6
Then again, if he did keep U.K. close to EU, then Brexit-related divisions between NIreland and the rest of UK would diminish as the EU need for controls/checks/paperwork to keep an eye on what’s coming in or going out of their single market/customs territory would decrease /7
It all comes down to not being able to have your cake and eat it. Those trade-offs so many politicians seem very reluctant to come clean about /8
