Two days ago, I laid out a) Trump's impeachment defense, b) the distinctions between the 4 Ukraine-related "election meddling" conspiracy theories now peddled by the Kremlin and GOP. Since then, the primetime airwaves have exploded with what I said was coming. Get caught up here.
1/ Yesterday, Sen. Kennedy went on Chris Cuomo's show to cycle through all 4 conspiracy theories. Tonight, former Trump adviser Michael Caputo went on Cuomo's program to cycle through all 4 conspiracy theories. The Trump game-plan is clear—and we *better* start talking about it.
2/ It's stunning to me that politicians and media are still pretending there's *one* "Ukraine election-meddling" conspiracy theory that's based on a single stock of evidence. *No*—not only are the *theories* different, but the *witnesses* relevant to each are *totally* different.
3/ Thus:
CROWDSTRIKE: Crowdstrike, DNC, and FBI employees.
BURISMA: Poroshenko, Joe/Hunter Biden, Shokin.
BLACK LEDGER: Leshchenko, NABU employees, Manafort.
UKRAINE-CHALUPA-DNC: Chaliy, Shulyar, Chalupa, Telizhenko.
If media/Dems don't know the witnesses, how can they prepare?
CROWDSTRIKE: Crowdstrike, DNC, and FBI employees.
BURISMA: Poroshenko, Joe/Hunter Biden, Shokin.
BLACK LEDGER: Leshchenko, NABU employees, Manafort.
UKRAINE-CHALUPA-DNC: Chaliy, Shulyar, Chalupa, Telizhenko.
If media/Dems don't know the witnesses, how can they prepare?
4/ Moreover, the type of fake evidence and rhetorical misdirection that'll be used by Trump—and more importantly, his lawyers—to pursue each conspiracy theory is different:
CROWDSTRIKE: Lies about Crowdstrike and how FBI/Crowdstrike handled DNC servers (or how anyone would've).
CROWDSTRIKE: Lies about Crowdstrike and how FBI/Crowdstrike handled DNC servers (or how anyone would've).
5/
BURISMA: Lies about how foreign boards work, lies about the timeline of Burisma investigations (when they happened, who they investigated, when they were closed, why they were closed), and false testimony from corrupt Ukrainian prosecutor Shokin (and possibly Lutshenko, too).
BURISMA: Lies about how foreign boards work, lies about the timeline of Burisma investigations (when they happened, who they investigated, when they were closed, why they were closed), and false testimony from corrupt Ukrainian prosecutor Shokin (and possibly Lutshenko, too).
6/
BLACK LEDGER: Lies about the Manafort prosecution evidence in the US, lies about ties between the Poroshenko administration and the NABU, overheated political rhetoric from Ukraine, false evidence sourced from Manafort himself, misdirections about how material evidence works.
BLACK LEDGER: Lies about the Manafort prosecution evidence in the US, lies about ties between the Poroshenko administration and the NABU, overheated political rhetoric from Ukraine, false evidence sourced from Manafort himself, misdirections about how material evidence works.
7/
UKRAINE-CHALUPA-DNC: A small number of accurate facts about Andrea Chalupa's work with the DNC and her 2016 contacts with the Ukrainian embassy, wildly augmented with *numerous* lies about the same *and* much false testimony from Ukrainian embassy employee Andrii Telizhenko.
UKRAINE-CHALUPA-DNC: A small number of accurate facts about Andrea Chalupa's work with the DNC and her 2016 contacts with the Ukrainian embassy, wildly augmented with *numerous* lies about the same *and* much false testimony from Ukrainian embassy employee Andrii Telizhenko.
8/ Disinformation isn't "information" at all—but a series of signals pointing in contradictory directions, surrounded by noise (and thus meaningless). If Democrats and media don't understand Trump is about to wage a *Kremlin-style disinformation campaign* in the US, we're doomed.
9/ But the greatest ally Trump, Putin, Trump's lawyers, and his/the Kremlin's disinformation agents have is...Democrats themselves. We're loath to discuss how Trump is using disinformation for fear we will *spread* that disinformation, with the result that America is misinformed.
10/ For instance. it's OK to say that, *because* of candidate Trump's historically disloyal foreign policy—which took the side of our enemy Russia after it committed war crimes in invading Europe (our ally, future NATO/EU member Ukraine)—Ukraine had reason to want Clinton to win.
11/ It's *not unusual* for foreign governments to have a *rooting* interest in a US election. It's not even uncommon—though it's deeply frowned upon—for foreign pols to implicitly (or explicitly) weigh in on a US election. You know who benefitted the most from that in '16? Trump.
12/ It *skirts the line of legality* for US persons to get politically valuable *public* info from foreign nationals during a US election, and it's *illegal* for US persons to get *nonpublic* info from foreign nationals during a US election. But Mueller muddled this all up badly.
13/ Mueller created chaos by not charging Don Jr. Many lawyers think Jr. committed a crime; certainly, Mueller poorly explained *why* Jr. wasn't charged. So now the GOP falsely argues it's *legal* to get nonpublic, politically valuable info from foreign nationals mid-election.
14/ But it doesn't *matter* anymore that Mueller messed up. Why? From an evidentiary standpoint—in terms of the impeachment trial—what matters is that *Trump* believes (and has said so!) it's OK to get politically valuable nonpublic info from foreign nationals during an election.
15/ The CROWDSTRIKE, BURISMA, and BLACK LEDGER conspiracy theories depend *entirely* on lies, made-up "facts," and fake evidence. Trump's defense team will need to tread *very* carefully there. So what it will do *instead* is focus on the *fourth* Kremlin-aided conspiracy theory.
16/ Trump's use of the UKRAINE-CHALUPA-DNC conspiracy theory will *also* feature lies, made-up "facts," and fake evidence. But he'll *also* argue that he considers it "corruption" for *anyone* to get *any* (even *public*) information from foreign nationals during a US election.
17/ Follow me:
1. Trump is *on record* saying it's *OK* for him to get *politically valuable nonpublic info* from foreign nationals during an election; but
2. he'll now argue it's *CORRUPTION* for a *Democrat* to get *even public info from foreign nationals during an election*.
1. Trump is *on record* saying it's *OK* for him to get *politically valuable nonpublic info* from foreign nationals during an election; but
2. he'll now argue it's *CORRUPTION* for a *Democrat* to get *even public info from foreign nationals during an election*.
18/ It's in the window between Statement #1 and Statement #2—above—that Trump will usher in a veritable *Pandora's Box* of conspiracy theories that go *beyond* the UKRAINE-CHALUPA-DNC conspiracy theory and delve into the darkest ones he has: CROWDSTRIKE, BURISMA and BLACK LEDGER.
19/ I know I'm just an attorney and professor on Twitter, but I was a criminal investigator, too—and I worked as a criminal defense lawyer for years. And because I was a public defender, I know what it is to develop a reasonable defense in unwinnable cases I didn't choose myself.
20/ Feel free to Google all the names, facts, and disinformation frameworks I've mentioned here. I have this right. All I can do now is ask you to RETWEET the first tweet in this thread in the hope that the media and Democrats in Congress will see what's headed straight for them.
