One of the fundamental dynamics of the Democratic primaries is that we are searching for something that doesn’t really exist: a candidate who only excites without any baggage, positions or issues we don’t like.
That caps Biden’s and Bernie’s support. We know them already.
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That caps Biden’s and Bernie’s support. We know them already.
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And that creates a recurrent cycle among the challengers.
Someone separates from the pack, draws interest and attention, plateaus and then falls back.
Kamala. Then Warren.
Now Mayor Pete is ascending and separating.
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Someone separates from the pack, draws interest and attention, plateaus and then falls back.
Kamala. Then Warren.
Now Mayor Pete is ascending and separating.
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During the momentum phase, there is the sensation the candidate can rise forever.
But then they go from challenger to leader, the dynamics change, they lose momentum... and that loss of momentum in and of itself breaks the spell in a way.
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But then they go from challenger to leader, the dynamics change, they lose momentum... and that loss of momentum in and of itself breaks the spell in a way.
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If that cycle continues, we have a little ways to go before Mayor Pete reaches credible front-runner and then the velocity of his rise will slow, stall or reverse.
The candidate most likely to break out from the peloton next IMHO - messed up though it is - is Bloomberg.
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The candidate most likely to break out from the peloton next IMHO - messed up though it is - is Bloomberg.
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I called Biden’s move sideways and slow erosion since announcing.
I called Sanders failure to gain any new support.
I called Warren abruptly severing her rise with her M4A plan.
I called Pete’s ascendence to Iowa front-runner and likely winner.
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I called Sanders failure to gain any new support.
I called Warren abruptly severing her rise with her M4A plan.
I called Pete’s ascendence to Iowa front-runner and likely winner.
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My updated near-term view of the race:
Within a month the major media narrative will be about Mayor Pete’s staying power near the lead; Bernie and Biden still going sideways; Warren falling out of the lead pack; and Bloomberg’s momentum.
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Within a month the major media narrative will be about Mayor Pete’s staying power near the lead; Bernie and Biden still going sideways; Warren falling out of the lead pack; and Bloomberg’s momentum.
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Bloomie won’t be near the lead but he’ll be the candidate with noticeable rising numbers.
As I’ve been saying all primary, the media loves a horse race. And they love a stalking horse far more than a front-runner.
That favors challengers... until they’re leaders.
7/7
As I’ve been saying all primary, the media loves a horse race. And they love a stalking horse far more than a front-runner.
That favors challengers... until they’re leaders.
7/7
I’ll just add one thing to this:
A whole lot of past primaries have been lost by candidates who broke out from the pack but hit the lead too early.
A whole lot have been won by candidates whose upswing came at the perfect moment: as we started voting.
A whole lot of past primaries have been lost by candidates who broke out from the pack but hit the lead too early.
A whole lot have been won by candidates whose upswing came at the perfect moment: as we started voting.
In this race, I’m a bit hopeful that phenomenon won’t decide the race and we will instead get all of these rise-plateau-retreat cycles out of the way and pick the best candidate - not merely the last one to break out from the pack.
