Thread by @centrist_phone

Some partial information on voter registration has been released.

The consensus is - bad news for Labour.

As we have come to expect from our political commentators, is a sloppy analysis.

The overall perspective is positive for Labour.

How? Read on...

1/6

The constituencies released can be broken into two buckets

1) Falling populations (people moving out, deaths)
2) Rising populations (people moving in, turning 18)

It is no surprise that Lab 'northern wall' seats show limited or no rise in voter registration.

2/6

Many of the 'northern wall' seats fall into the first bucket.

The populations are older than average (more deaths) and there is net emigration to other parts of the UK

So, we may see a fall in registrations caused by over 65's dying, even if young voter reg is up.

3/6

However, the overall picture in the partial data is positive for Lab

It shows an average of 1260 additional voters per constituency compared to 2017

This average is sure to rise as more southern marginals and metropolitan areas (bucket 2) provide figures

4/6

We can use the partial data to estimate the number of new voters

- In 2017 there were 46.1m registered voters
- We are on track to see that rise to over 47.2m+
- In addition, 1.67m over 65's have died since GE17
- The number of brand new voters is likely to be ~3m+

5/6

So compared to 2017, it look like we're on track to have:

1) 1.67m dead 65+ who heavily voted Con in GE17
2) 3m+ newly registered voters who heavily lean to Lab

Anyone spinning this as bad news for Labour should bear these facts in mind.

END