The consensus is - bad news for Labour.
As we have come to expect from our political commentators, is a sloppy analysis.
The overall perspective is positive for Labour.
How? Read on...
1) Falling populations (people moving out, deaths)
2) Rising populations (people moving in, turning 18)
It is no surprise that Lab 'northern wall' seats show limited or no rise in voter registration.
The populations are older than average (more deaths) and there is net emigration to other parts of the UK
So, we may see a fall in registrations caused by over 65's dying, even if young voter reg is up.
It shows an average of 1260 additional voters per constituency compared to 2017
This average is sure to rise as more southern marginals and metropolitan areas (bucket 2) provide figures
- In 2017 there were 46.1m registered voters
- We are on track to see that rise to over 47.2m+
- In addition, 1.67m over 65's have died since GE17
- The number of brand new voters is likely to be ~3m+
1) 1.67m dead 65+ who heavily voted Con in GE17
2) 3m+ newly registered voters who heavily lean to Lab
Anyone spinning this as bad news for Labour should bear these facts in mind.