Quick analysis YouGov MRP
On a Lab vote share of 34%:
1) Lab are advancing strongly in the south compared to previous MRP and are positioned to make gains
2) Lab 'red wall' firming up ~15 seats saved
3) A LOT of tight marginals
What does this mean?
1/4
On a Lab vote share of 34%:
1) Lab are advancing strongly in the south compared to previous MRP and are positioned to make gains
2) Lab 'red wall' firming up ~15 seats saved
3) A LOT of tight marginals
What does this mean?
1/4
If Lab get to just ~37% on polling day (on current trends this seems plausible and likely) the following happens:
1) They could take ~10 seats from Con in the South
2) They save all but ~10 seats in the Red Wall
3) LD's take ~5 seats from Con
4) SNP take ~6 seats from Con
2/4
1) They could take ~10 seats from Con in the South
2) They save all but ~10 seats in the Red Wall
3) LD's take ~5 seats from Con
4) SNP take ~6 seats from Con
2/4
The potential Lab gains would be:
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Chingford and Wood Green
Hendon
Putney
Hastings
Reading West
South Swindon
Norwich North
Vale of Glamorgan
3/4
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Chingford and Wood Green
Hendon
Putney
Hastings
Reading West
South Swindon
Norwich North
Vale of Glamorgan
3/4
The end result of this plausible further narrowing is this:
CON: 307 seats
LAB: 255 seats
And that is a Lab Minority Government.
If Lab close the gap further, to say 39/43, they will have more MP's than in 2017.
END
CON: 307 seats
LAB: 255 seats
And that is a Lab Minority Government.
If Lab close the gap further, to say 39/43, they will have more MP's than in 2017.
END
ADDITIONAL INFO KLAXON:
There has been a huge late swing to Labour in YouGov figures. This happened in 2017 too as undecideds made up their mind.
Yesterday the majority was 50.
The trends all point to the same outcome - a hung parliament is very likely.
There has been a huge late swing to Labour in YouGov figures. This happened in 2017 too as undecideds made up their mind.
Yesterday the majority was 50.
The trends all point to the same outcome - a hung parliament is very likely.
MORE INFO:
Crikey.
The MRP is assuming 2015 levels of turnout among the young. It does not use self-report.
This could blow up in YouGov's faces if the recorded increase in political engagement among Labour favouring demographics translate into votes. It is a 'brave' decision.
Crikey.
The MRP is assuming 2015 levels of turnout among the young. It does not use self-report.
This could blow up in YouGov's faces if the recorded increase in political engagement among Labour favouring demographics translate into votes. It is a 'brave' decision.
MORE INFO CONT.
"It is possible that there will be demographic changes to the electorate"
Er... it's not just that. It's that + greatly increased self-reported political engagement
This approach is potentially flawed. I am putting that very diplomatically.
REAL END
"It is possible that there will be demographic changes to the electorate"
Er... it's not just that. It's that + greatly increased self-reported political engagement
This approach is potentially flawed. I am putting that very diplomatically.
REAL END
I have added further details about YouGov weighting to 2015 turnout, and the impact of correcting for it, here:
