Thread by @CarolynG_22

Come learn about how permafrost thaw impacts ecosystems and communities at my #AGU2019 presentation. Tues, 8am, Moscone West - 3001, L3. Can't make it? No worries, follow this thread for an e-version of my talk!
Abstract Here: agu.confex.com/agu/fm19/meeti…

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp Permafrost thaw in lowland environments happens in two ways. 1) Top down thaw that thickens the active layer, and 2) Abrupt thaw (pictured there) that thaws the entire soil column. As the climate warms rates of abrupt thaw will increase, but it is also increase due to wildfire.

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp We know from a study lead by @queenofpeat that abrupt thaw impacts <20% of permafrost soils, but impacts >50% of permafrost carbon. Does permafrost thaw therefore = big consequences for global carbon cycling?

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp To understand if abrupt thaw caused big C losses, simple invert model were build and model spin ups through to 2300 were done. Conclusion? Abrupt thaw emission increase estimates of permafrost carbon release by 50%!!

Read more here: nature.com/articles/d4158…

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp It is clear permafrost thaw has profound impacts of C cycling? But what about other biophysical and social aspects of the north? A 400+ paper synthesis reveals that 90% of all permafrost related research focuses on biophysical impacts. What is the impact of this for communities?

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp In North America, more than 75% of communities do not have permafrost thaw related measurements within 50km of them. And it is these communities that are on the forefront of change and must adapt to changing permafrost conditions!

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp To help support community planning, we are working to develop a risk assessment framework. And remember! Risk is a probability TIMES a consequence. Most permafrost maps are not risk, they are a probability of thaw. We need to include the consequence portion of that equation!

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp We are doing this by mapping ecosystem services on the land with communities. ES are anything that supports the wellbeing of land users!

Note: this is an example with made up data. Community data is sensitive and resides with the community.

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp We now have probability and consequences. So lets do risk!!! Look at the difference that makes! Now we can identify hotspots and prioritize areas for adaptation!

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp BUT, if we want to risk properly we need to understand consequences and therefore have a stronger understanding of the impacts of thaw on ecosystem services! Time to rally our from other disciplines friends and tackle this complex and important questions!!

@queenofpeat @forestecogrp Thanks for following along with my talk! If you have questions or comments please reach out!