Thread by @HImpartiality

LIB DEM THREAD/long:

I was going to put together a rant on Labour - but everyone’s doing that so here are my thoughts on the Lib Dems - who didn’t just snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory, but somehow ended up leaderless, down on seats & losing in places even Clegg couldn’t

They had SO much going for them. A new young “normal” leader, they had Corbyn on one side and Boris on the other. They seemed the sensible choice when all around were losing their heads. They had success in the local elections in their old heartland and their best ever Euros.

So where did they go wrong? Let’s start at the very beginning...

Analyse their successes in those two prior sets of elections (under Cable) in 2019 and they were vastly different. In the local elections in May they were back to their localist roots - the good honest grafters putting community first and not worrying about the national picture.

As a result they cleaned-up in Brexity rural Somerset, Devon, Leicestershire & Chelmsford. They got their localist mojo back, back to echos of the Ashdown era. Eastleigh was a clean sweep.

They profited too in Remainia sweeping all before them in South Cambridgeshire.

Next the Euros - an unexpected boon for them as they became the anti-Brexit protest party.

They showed guts. “Bollock to Brexit” was crass, it was devisive, but it “had balls” (pun intended). Everyone knew what they stood for. They were sticking it back to the populists.

It energised young voters - something they’d failed to do since Clegg sold students down the river and destroyed the party. They won across London which was crazy.

It also destroyed Change UK - which had been an existential threat only 2 months earlier.

Membership was surging, amd then they were gfted a by-election in very winnable Brecon and Radnorshire. Defections were coming their way, and in all this Jo Swinson took the leadership.

At first it all looked good. They won Brecon and were getting more and more MPs joining from both sides. These defections took away Boris’s majority.

And so the shenanigans in parliament ultimately led to an election where the Lib Dems went into far too confidently. In some ways they deserved confidence. More members and a much bigger war-chest than in previous post-Clegg years. Tories and Labour were polling badly.

Brexit Party also were splitting the vote. It looked geniunely like they could do well.

But the mistakes were happening thick and fast. Firstly was the Presidential style campaign. Yes - both Corbyn and Johnson were big dominant names - but Jo Swinson wasn’t. It came across as arrogant. “Your next Prime Minister” was ambitious but foolhardy.

The Revoke policy was unnecessary. They were trying to keep clear blue water from Labour by being “more remainy”. This was wrong for several reasons. Firstly, the seats they needed to win were conservative, not inner-London remain seats. Soft remainy Tories don’t like “a scene”.

Secondly, Revoke wasn’t all that democratic and played well into the hands of the Tories. Thirdly, making a policy just because another party is making their policy similar to yours is just wrong. If you believe in something stick to it.

So the Revoke, then combined with vehemently negative anti-Corbyn and anti-Johnson looked a bit ranty. It allowed other remain parties take the moral high-ground (see Caroline Lucas’s rants for example).

In my opinion the use of social media was also flawed. Jo Swinson, whenever commenting on video always came across as over-acting, as somehow not natural, as amateur. This may be unfair but it’s how it looked.

Party political broadcasts with her jogging was not something that was going to sweep seats through.

The graphics were dull. The photos of Swinson contrived. It all felt put together by a group of sixth m-formers doing a media A-level project.

And so as the election went on the polling dropped. The squeeze from the fear of Corbyn and the fear of Brexit took their toll. Polls compared to prior polls and so the Lib Dems were in a negative spiral. They lookes like a horse not to back.

Throw in coalition baggage, statues for Maggie, being left out of the main debates, they were in the decline. The youth weren’t on board despite Labour’s Brexit contortions and the Tory remainers were in large part still unconvinced.

And the party of Kennedy and his 60 seats had finally beem eviscerated. Kennedy’s core was rural Scotland, the rural South West and students. A strange coalition, but before the baggage of government it worked.

Clegg disembowelled the student seats. The SNP swept Scotland.

Hardline Revoke meant the South West was irrevocably gone too. Take North Devon. A seat that narrowly lost in 2017, where the Libs swep back in to power in the local, and now crashed out on a 9% swing.

Their North Norfolk outpost was even worse. They crushed all before them in May - sweeping the council on massive swings. Then Norman Lamb retired, worn down by the FBPErs who couldn’t see beyond their prosecco-fueled Remain blinkers. They lost the seats on a MASSIVE swing

And this they failed. Crashed. Burned. What should they have done? Who knows maybe the squeeze was always on. But maybe not.

Maybe Swinson should have just platlyed the calm, sensible card, playing down her own role and replacing it with a “we’re the sensible, moderate party”.

They should have made more of the defectors nationally - especially Luciana.

Had they had Davey as leader would they have done better? I doubt it. His baggage in coalition was worse, & whilst they may have picked up 2-3 more seats down south they would have lost 2-3 in Scotland.

And the SNP played a blinder. Whilst the Libs found themselves squeezed between Labour & Tory and declining, the SNP faced no such challenge. North of the border Labour were already functionally extinct.

Maybe instead they should have kept Cable on. A safe pair of hands to keep the party afloat, get some fresh blood in and then worry about a new leader.

Maybe he was right trying to change the party so they could have a leader who wasn’t an MP.
I mean the choice was so limited.

And what next? What is the Lib Dem heartland now? Post Brexit where do they go? Post Corbyn will they shrink further. Who knows.

Underlying the bad result were some amazing surges - so close in seats like Esher, Guildford, South Cambs, Wimbledon. Almost back in some old Kennedy-era seats like Lewes and Cheadle.

But maybe with Brexit gone, and Corbyn soon to follow, the gifts that should have made the Lib Dems are gone too, and after that, what are they even for?

It all now hinges on a new leader. Pick another coalition veteran and hardcore FBPEr then they will have learned nothing.

And the pool to choose from is, like last time and the time before, woefully small. They should have listened to Vince.

Ends.