(Thread) Saved by the Two Party System?
People are, indeed, seeing the UK results as a warning sign for 2020.
Boris won with 43% of the vote.
The warning is well taken.
Remember, though, that in a parliamentary system, a candidate can win with 43% of the vote.
People are, indeed, seeing the UK results as a warning sign for 2020.
Boris won with 43% of the vote.
The warning is well taken.
Remember, though, that in a parliamentary system, a candidate can win with 43% of the vote.
1/ Here are the UK election results ⤵️
Notice that the Conservative party won 43%, Labor won 32%, and 24% went elsewhere.
Notice that the Conservative party won 43%, Labor won 32%, and 24% went elsewhere.
2/ In a two party system, if one candidate gets 43% of the vote, that candidate loses in a bloodbath.
To take an example, in 1988 Bush won with 53.4% of the vote.
Dukakis won 45.6% of the vote.
The electoral map looked like this⤵️
A disaster for Dukakis.
To take an example, in 1988 Bush won with 53.4% of the vote.
Dukakis won 45.6% of the vote.
The electoral map looked like this⤵️
A disaster for Dukakis.
3/ The 1988 numbers roughly line up with Trump’s approval / disapproval over the course of his presidency.
I prefer the @fivethirtyeight polling aggregate because it keeps us from focusing on outlier polls:
I prefer the @fivethirtyeight polling aggregate because it keeps us from focusing on outlier polls:
@FiveThirtyEight 4/ People often tell me that our problem in the US is a two-party system that can’t represent a multiplicity of views.
Well, in a parliamentary system, a candidate can come to power with a third of the vote.
That’s how Hitler seized power with 33% of the vote in 1933.
Well, in a parliamentary system, a candidate can come to power with a third of the vote.
That’s how Hitler seized power with 33% of the vote in 1933.
@FiveThirtyEight 5/ Remember that political psychologists tell us that roughly a third of the population is inclined toward authoritarianism.
See, for example: academia.edu/34651963/The_R…
And: karenstenner.com
A 2-party system makes it difficult for that 1/3 to win a national election.
See, for example: academia.edu/34651963/The_R…
And: karenstenner.com
A 2-party system makes it difficult for that 1/3 to win a national election.
@FiveThirtyEight 6/ Another, incidental point: The constitution provides that if no candidate wins a majority of the electoral college, the House of Representatives selects the president.
I just can't imagine that going well.
I just can't imagine that going well.
@FiveThirtyEight 7/ People dissatisfied with the 2-party system often tell me that the Democratic Party doesn’t reflect their views, because the Democratic Party often positions itself center-left.
That means it's time to talk about Ralph Nader and the 2000 election, when this happened:
That means it's time to talk about Ralph Nader and the 2000 election, when this happened:
@FiveThirtyEight 8/ This is how many conservatives feel about Trump:
(h/t @mjf_dfw)
The anti-Trump / pro-Democratic coalition is potentially huge IF the people opposed to Trump vote as a block
*Notice the "if" in that sentence.
(h/t @mjf_dfw)
The anti-Trump / pro-Democratic coalition is potentially huge IF the people opposed to Trump vote as a block
*Notice the "if" in that sentence.
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw 9/ If the anti-Trump coalition votes as a bloc, the Trump-Fox-GOP can be smashed to smithereens.
You see, the GOP has been taken over by reactionaries.
For more on the difference between conservatives and the reactionaries who've seized the GOP, see ⤵️
You see, the GOP has been taken over by reactionaries.
For more on the difference between conservatives and the reactionaries who've seized the GOP, see ⤵️
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw 10/ In Germany after WWII, for the first time in Germany’s (short) history as a democracy, a true conservative party arose from the ashes of the Nazi party.
My source for that information is?
My source for that information is?
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw 11/ A word about Never Trumpers.
Many are true conservatives who want a complete remake of the Republican Party.
Others are reactionaries who dislike Trump. They want to return to the GOP as it was in 2015. They want the Trump-FOX-GOP without Trump.
Many are true conservatives who want a complete remake of the Republican Party.
Others are reactionaries who dislike Trump. They want to return to the GOP as it was in 2015. They want the Trump-FOX-GOP without Trump.
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw 12/ The point about Germany: There's historical precedent for smashing a white nationalist party and replacing it with a true conservative party.
It can happen here, IF those who want to see a complete remake of the Republican Party come together in November and vote Democratic.
It can happen here, IF those who want to see a complete remake of the Republican Party come together in November and vote Democratic.
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw 13/ For people who are furiously defending parliamentary systems: systems have advantages and disadvantages.
I'm pointing out an advantage of our 2-party system.
It's very difficult in a 2-party system for a candidate to come to national power with less than 40% of the vote.
I'm pointing out an advantage of our 2-party system.
It's very difficult in a 2-party system for a candidate to come to national power with less than 40% of the vote.
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw *That should have been: In a 2-party system, it's very difficult to come to national power with less than 45% of the vote.
I'd think under 40% in a 2-party system is near impossible.
Adding this from someone coming at the issue from a different field ⤵️
I'd think under 40% in a 2-party system is near impossible.
Adding this from someone coming at the issue from a different field ⤵️
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw Yes, winning with 43% is possible with a strong enough 3rd party candidate.
Perot took almost 18% of the vote.
If a 3rd party candidate gets 18% the vote is being divided 3 ways.
Most US elections divide 2 ways, with some stragglers.
Perot took almost 18% of the vote.
If a 3rd party candidate gets 18% the vote is being divided 3 ways.
Most US elections divide 2 ways, with some stragglers.
@FiveThirtyEight @mjf_dfw Yes. I have done voter protection work as a lawyer.
People tend to
💠overestimate how easy it is to flip votes millions of votes via hacking and
💠underestimate how easy it is to suppress millions of votes via psychological manipulation.
People tend to
💠overestimate how easy it is to flip votes millions of votes via hacking and
💠underestimate how easy it is to suppress millions of votes via psychological manipulation.
