Here are each Democratic candidate's strongest and weakest states, as determined based on a combination of polls and a regression derived from demographic and geographic factors (including home-state effects).
Biden:
Strongest: MS, DE, AL, SC, LA
Weakest: VT, MN, IA, NH, HI
Biden:
Strongest: MS, DE, AL, SC, LA
Weakest: VT, MN, IA, NH, HI
Sanders:
Strongest: VT, RI, WA, CO, NV
Weakest: AL, DC, MD, DE, MS
Warren:
Strongest: MA, RI, ME, OK, CT
Weakest: MS, IN, DE, AL, SC
Buttigieg:
Strongest: IN, IA, NH, IL, ND
Weakest: MS, AL, LA, AR, WV
Strongest: VT, RI, WA, CO, NV
Weakest: AL, DC, MD, DE, MS
Warren:
Strongest: MA, RI, ME, OK, CT
Weakest: MS, IN, DE, AL, SC
Buttigieg:
Strongest: IN, IA, NH, IL, ND
Weakest: MS, AL, LA, AR, WV
One thing that's a bit striking is the lack of geographic diversity among the major D candidates. Everyone's from the Northeast or the Midwest. That probably helps Biden who gets to be the sort of de facto Southern candidate. Bernie could do relatively well out West, meanwhile.
